Game Recap: SJS 2, MIN 1 (OT), November 11, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS2

Final/OTTue, Nov 11, 2025Every game that night

MIN1

SJS beat MIN 2-1 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 2.01 expected goals to 2.95. MIN outshot SJS 29 to 18. M. Celebrini led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). Z. Buium had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. Y. Askarov stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SJS	0	0	1	1	2
MIN	0	1	0	0	1

2nd 5:02MINM. BoldyPP0.16 xG
3rd 11:57SJSW. SmithPP0.13 xG
OT 2:41SJSC. Graf0.18 xG

Team Stats

SJSMIN

18Shots on goal29

2.01Expected goals2.95

49Shot attempts58

155v5 shots on goal21

1/3Power play1/4

22Hits16

13Blocked shots16

8Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways7

1Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.01 xGMIN 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS18 on goal, 2 scored

MIN29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	+1	0	19:03	2:43
W. Smith	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	18:31	2:43
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	15:53	2:28
C. Graf	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:53	0:00
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	21:02	2:18
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	19:15	2:37
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	18:00	2:06
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	14:54	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:54	2:12
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:10	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:49	2:06
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	7:58	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	13:45	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	27:40	2:18
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	4	22:56	2:31
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:17	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:32	0:03
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	29	28	1	.966	62:14	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	23:15	6:15
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:17	5:15
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	24:31	6:15
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	2	21:52	6:15
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:59	0:42
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:00	0:42
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:03	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	12:47	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:51	1:42
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:28	0:42
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:43	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	8:42	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	26:08	3:39
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	24:55	0:42
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-1	0	21:56	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	21:33	2:36
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:27	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	9:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	18	16	2	.889	62:41	OT loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1A. Wennberg15:14W. Eklund15:38P. Kurashev14:51

Line 2W. Smith13:29M. Celebrini13:53T. Toffoli13:25

Line 3J. Skinner11:42T. Dellandrea11:22C. Graf9:53

Line 4R. Reaves7:58B. Goodrow7:57A. Gaudette7:43

Pair 1D. Orlov21:39J. Klingberg19:58

Pair 2V. Desharnais10:49S. Dickinson12:43

Pair 3S. Mukhamadullin16:44M. Ferraro13:57

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov16:37M. Rossi14:28M. Zuccarello12:22

Line 2J. Ek13:05M. Boldy13:42M. Johansson11:25

Line 3M. Foligno10:57Y. Trenin11:22D. Yurov9:43

Line 4V. Tarasenko10:09R. Hartman10:46V. Hinostroza8:42

Pair 1B. Faber21:20Z. Buium22:29

Pair 2J. Spurgeon15:52J. Brodin18:01

Pair 3D. Hunt9:14D.Jiricek8:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, MIN 3.6	SJS 2, MIN 1
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	SJS 26.6, MIN 31.2	SJS 18, MIN 29
Win chance	MIN 63%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.6	3	1.45	0	48%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	5	1.07	1	35%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.2	5	0.82	0	29%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.0	0	0.88	2	28%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	0	0.68	1	29%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.5	0	0.62	0	25%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.3	1	1.01	1	27%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	3	0.70	0	21%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.1	1	0.76	1	24%	1
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	0	0.66	0	24%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	1	0.44	0	11%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.8	1	0.47	0	22%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.8	1	0.59	0	14%	0
MIN M. Rossi	1.7	0	0.66	0	24%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.6	2	0.45	0	8%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.6	1	0.56	0	18%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	3	0.49	0	9%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.6	3	0.50	0	17%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.4	3	0.36	0	15%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.4	2	0.41	0	9%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.25	0	13%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.2	0	0.38	0	17%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	2	0.49	0	16%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.2	0	0.15	1	5%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	0	0.31	0	16%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	0	0.23	0	4%	0
MIN Z. Buium	1.1	4	0.37	1	7%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	1	0.24	0	9%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.0	1	0.29	1	12%	1
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	0	0.29	0	4%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	0	0.25	0	14%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.8	0	0.20	0	4%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.8	2	0.19	0	4%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	1	0.12	0	1%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.11	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.