Game Recap: SJS 1, MIN 4, November 6, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS1

FinalFri, Nov 6, 2026Every game that night

MIN4

MIN beat SJS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.59 expected goals to 2.03. K. Kaprizov led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Boldy had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.9. J. Wallstedt stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	0	1	0	1
MIN	1	1	2	4

1st 7:55MINK. KaprizovPP0.21 xG
2nd 12:11SJSM. Celebrini0.07 xG
2nd 14:15MINM. ShabanovPP0.12 xG
3rd 6:54MINQ. Hughes0.02 xG
3rd 13:58MINZ. Bogosian0.01 xG

Team Stats

SJSMIN

24Shots on goal29

2.03Expected goals3.59

54Shot attempts68

205v5 shots on goal15

0/3Power play2/5

17Hits29

18Blocked shots17

10Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways14

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.03 xGMIN 3.59 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS24 on goal, 1 scored

MIN28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	2	24:59	5:43
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	21:11	4:51
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	20:18	2:48
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	17:13	1:22
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:35	4:57
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	2	14:19	0:02
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:56	4:38
I. Stenberg	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:33	2:55
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:13	0:07
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	11:14	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	10:45	0:14
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:15	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	15:02	0:56
D. Nurse	D	0	0	0	3	0	5	-1	0	22:38	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	4	19:15	0:03
M. Kesselring	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:56	0:08
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:17	0:00
E. Pohlkamp	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+1	0	16:10	1:16

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	3	4	3	0	1	+2	0	19:28	5:02
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	7	0	0	+2	0	19:26	5:19
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	+2	2	18:52	4:57
M. Shabanov	RW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	16:56	5:06
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:58	2:44
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	16:29	2:18
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	15:55	2:50
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:00	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	2	13:53	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:27	2:40
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	10:19	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	7:32	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	1	2	3	2	1	0	0	0	31:00	6:39
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	24:25	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	1	0	1	1	6	2	+1	0	13:22	0:00
O. Maatta	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	18:20	0:00
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:59	0:00
D. Spacek	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:56	1:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	24	23	1	.958	59:43	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini18:08W. Smith16:17M. Misa17:15

Line 2K. Sherwood12:26C. Graf11:43M. Marchment11:26

Line 3T. Dellandrea8:29I. Stenberg9:38T. Toffoli8:18

Line 4B. Goodrow8:38Z. Ostapchuk8:31A. Gaudette7:15

Pair 1J. Trouba15:27S. Dickinson16:16

Pair 2D. Nurse16:40M. Kesselring15:42

Pair 3D. Orlov14:06E. Pohlkamp13:40

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov14:09M. Boldy13:05J. Ek13:23

Line 2B. Coleman11:19B. Brink15:14M. McCarron10:56

Line 3D. Yurov11:57M. Shabanov11:50Y. Trenin11:48

Line 4T. Pitlick7:32N. Sturm8:27R. Hartman8:30

Pair 1J. Brodin20:46Q. Hughes24:04

Pair 2Z. Bogosian11:02O. Maatta14:41

Pair 3M. Kiersted10:21D. Spacek10:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 22 overs hit (27%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MIN J. Ek	3.5	+126	-145	2	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+100	-125	3	Under
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	-135	+110	7	Over
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	+125	-152	6	Over
MIN B. Coleman	2.5	+143	-178	2	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	-110	-110	2	Under
SJS W. Smith	2.5	+125	-155	2	Under
MIN B. Brink	1.5	-118	+102	1	Under
SJS C. Graf	1.5	+100	–	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	1.5	-115	–	3	Over
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	+100	-127	1	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	1.5	+116	-140	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	+120	-155	2	Over
SJS J. Trouba	1.5	-145	–	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	1.5	-120	+100	1	Under
SJS M. Marchment	1.5	-111	+100	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	1.5	+110	-135	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	1.5	+130	–	1	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	1.5	-110	-110	3	Over
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	+105	-135	1	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	1.5	-160	+130	2	Over
MIN Y. Trenin	1.5	+125	–	1	Under

5 of 36 overs hit (14%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
SJS A. Gaudette	0.5	+650	–	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+425	-750	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+290	-450	0	Under
SJS B. Goodrow	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+490	-800	0	Under
SJS D. Nurse	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+1200	-4000	0	Under
MIN D. Spacek	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+360	-500	0	Under
SJS E. Pohlkamp	0.5	+1250	–	0	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+320	-550	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+165	-200	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-115	+110	1	Over
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+410	-650	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+120	-155	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+175	-200	1	Over
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
MIN M. Kiersted	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+330	-475	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+500	-650	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+425	-750	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+270	-370	1	Over
MIN N. Sturm	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+1700	-2800	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+350	-475	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+285	-450	0	Under
SJS S. Dickinson	0.5	+1400	-4000	0	Under
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.5	+1200	–	0	Under
MIN T. Pitlick	0.5	+1000	-1400	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+360	-400	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+275	-320	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+750	-900	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+1700	-2800	1	Over
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under

7 of 20 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
MIN Q. Hughes	1.5	+180	-225	2	Over
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+250	-325	1	Over
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+230	-400	0	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+205	-225	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+190	-235	1	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+130	-135	1	Over
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+255	-335	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	-140	+115	3	Over
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-125	+105	1	Over
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+110	-120	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+185	-235	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+300	-550	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+175	-240	0	Under
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+230	-260	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+250	-325	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+165	-175	1	Over

8 of 20 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+105	-115	4	Over
MIN M. Boldy	1.5	+165	-175	1	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	1.5	+140	-155	3	Over
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+115	-145	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+120	-150	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+195	-250	1	Over
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+105	-132	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+145	-175	1	Over
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-160	+135	1	Over
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+205	-275	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	-230	+175	1	Over
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+105	-130	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+140	-170	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	-115	-110	1	Over
MIN O. Maatta	0.5	+200	-260	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+130	-150	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	-115	+105	1	Over

4 of 17 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
MIN D. Spacek	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
SJS I. Stenberg	0.5	+270	-300	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+135	-165	2	Over
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+140	-180	1	Over
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+180	-190	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+310	-425	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+200	-300	1	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+165	-185	2	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+360	-425	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+220	-275	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
SJS Y. Askarov	27.5	+100	-105	25	Under
MIN J. Wallstedt	22.5	+100	-115	23	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.8, MIN 3.9	SJS 1, MIN 4
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	SJS 25.9, MIN 31.4	SJS 24, MIN 29
Win chance	MIN 68%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.9	7	1.26	1	42%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.4	6	1.09	1	35%	1
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	3	1.47	4	50%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.2	2	0.92	1	34%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	2	1.33	3	21%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.4	2	0.74	1	27%	0
MIN B. Coleman	2.3	2	0.56	0	25%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.0	2	0.51	0	22%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.0	1	0.44	0	19%	0
SJS M. Marchment	1.9	0	0.61	0	23%	0
SJS D. Nurse	1.8	3	0.27	0	8%	0
SJS J. Trouba	1.8	0	0.32	0	7%	0
SJS M. Kesselring	1.7	1	0.28	0	7%	0
MIN R. Hartman	1.7	1	0.47	0	20%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.6	3	0.62	1	21%	1
SJS M. Misa	1.6	1	0.51	0	19%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.5	0	0.33	0	15%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.5	2	0.41	1	7%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.5	1	0.47	0	21%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.4	0	0.42	0	18%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.4	1	0.50	0	18%	0
SJS I. Stenberg	1.4	0	0.41	0	16%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.30	0	13%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.1	0	0.25	0	14%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	3	0.23	0	9%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.0	0	0.32	1	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	1	0.19	1	5%	1
MIN O. Maatta	0.9	0	0.36	0	7%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.9	0	0.26	0	11%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	0	0.15	0	8%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	0.8	2	0.21	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.14	0	7%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.8	3	0.10	0	6%	0
MIN D. Spacek	0.7	1	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.