Game Recap: SJS 3, MTL 4 (OT), February 27, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS3

Final/OTThu, Feb 27, 2025Every game that night

MTL4

MTL beat SJS 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.19 expected goals to 3.27. N. Suzuki led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Armia had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. S. Montembeault stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SJS	2	1	0	0	3
MTL	2	0	1	1	4

1st 3:56SJSF. Zetterlund0.07 xG
1st 6:49MTLN. Suzuki0.07 xG
1st 12:38SJSN. Sturm0.42 xG
1st 19:04MTLN. Suzuki0.13 xG
2nd 17:21SJSW. Smith0.10 xG
3rd 2:22MTLA. Newhook0.14 xG
OT 3:21MTLC. Caufield0.32 xG

Team Stats

SJSMTL

26Shots on goal33

3.27Expected goals3.19

64Shot attempts59

235v5 shots on goal26

0/0Power play0/2

33Hits39

21Blocked shots20

9Penalty minutes5

23Giveaways21

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.27 xGMTL 3.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS24 on goal, 3 scored

MTL33 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	0	2	2	1	0	2	+1	0	20:43	0:00
W. Smith	C	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	0	15:59	0:00
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	16:52	0:00
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	10:53	0:00
N. Sturm	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	10:23	0:00
K. Kostin	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	0	7:30	0:00
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	-2	0	21:20	0:00
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	20:43	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	16:54	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	15:38	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	0	13:35	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	5	13:07	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	+2	2	18:07	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	1	1	6	-2	0	27:55	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	+3	0	24:52	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:43	0:00
M. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	18:36	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	12:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	33	29	4	.879	63:21	OT loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	2	1	3	3	1	3	+2	0	22:07	2:13
C. Caufield	RW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	19:20	2:15
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	1	1	3	6	0	+1	0	21:04	2:15
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	14:14	1:47
P. Laine	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	12:58	2:15
O. Beck	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	11:34	0:00
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	17:12	0:02
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:02	1:45
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	15:26	0:00
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	13:51	1:43
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	13:35	1:41
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	13:20	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	25:08	2:12
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	1	6	3	0	5	15:15	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	27:25	1:48
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+1	0	23:09	0:04
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	-1	0	17:35	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	10:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	26	23	3	.885	63:21	Win
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayMike Matheson MTL Turns 31 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, MTL 3.4	SJS 3, MTL 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	SJS 26.0, MTL 29.9	SJS 26, MTL 33
Win chance	MTL 62%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.4	4	0.87	0	29%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.4	2	0.92	2	36%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.8	3	0.70	0	31%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.4	1	0.49	0	14%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.3	3	0.77	1	29%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.3	1	0.71	0	14%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	3	0.99	3	29%	2
MTL B. Gallagher	2.1	2	0.50	0	21%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	1.9	4	0.46	1	19%	1
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	0	0.70	0	21%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.8	3	0.69	1	22%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.8	5	0.44	0	19%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.7	3	0.38	0	19%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.6	2	0.53	1	21%	1
SJS L. Kunin	1.5	2	0.31	0	17%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.5	4	0.52	2	17%	1
MTL C. Dvorak	1.5	2	0.47	0	17%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	1.5	0	0.23	0	7%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.4	0	0.44	0	7%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.3	1	0.80	1	8%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.3	2	0.49	0	21%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.2	0	0.32	1	14%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.24	0	6%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.2	0	0.50	0	15%	0
MTL O. Beck	1.1	2	0.20	1	12%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	1	0.26	0	6%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	1	0.40	2	14%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
MTL J. Struble	1.0	1	0.25	1	6%	0
SJS N. Sturm	1.0	1	0.25	1	11%	1
SJS H. Thrun	1.0	0	0.23	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	1.0	2	0.24	0	12%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	2	0.18	1	5%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.9	1	0.33	0	6%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.8	0	0.29	1	14%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.8	1	0.19	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.