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Game Recap
SJS4
FinalSat, Mar 14, 2026Every game that night
MTL2

SJS beat MTL 4-2, with the chances close: 3.63 expected goals to 3.20. M. Celebrini led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). K. Dach had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SJS1214
MTL1102
  1. 1st 7:21MTLC. Caufield0.11 xG
  2. 1st 13:12SJSM. Celebrini0.14 xG
  3. 2nd 11:56SJSM. Ferraro0.03 xG
  4. 2nd 16:20SJSC. Graf0.22 xG
  5. 2nd 17:38MTLN. Suzuki0.09 xG
  6. 3rd 17:57SJSM. CelebriniEN0.42 xG

Team Stats

SJSMTL
22Shots on goal27
3.63Expected goals3.20
51Shot attempts62
205v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play0/3
23Hits22
14Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes0
22Giveaways21
5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.63 xGMTL 3.20 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdMTL goal, 7:21SJS goal, 13:12SJS goal, 11:56SJS goal, 16:20MTL goal, 17:38SJS goal, 17:57

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS22 on goal, 4 scored
MTL27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CelebriniC213311+2222:111:50
C. GrafRW123300+2017:100:00
W. EklundLW011320+1023:570:47
A. WennbergC0110000016:451:17
B. GoodrowC011010+1013:150:00
W. SmithC000000+2016:141:16
K. SherwoodLW000350-1016:070:44
T. ToffoliC0000200014:161:13
M. MisaC000300-1013:160:10
Z. OstapchukC0001200011:100:00
A. GaudetteRW0001020010:540:43
I. ChernyshovLW000000000:280:00
J. KlingbergD022122+1017:480:37
M. FerraroD101221+2023:180:00
V. DesharnaisD0000140221:310:00
D. OrlovD0000110020:521:23
S. DickinsonD0000220018:080:00
S. MukhamadullinD000221+1016:440:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Nedeljkovic27252.92660:00Win
L. Brossoit000–0:00

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SuzukiC1012000022:014:03
J. SlafkovskýLW011120-1021:283:40
C. CaufieldRW101300-1020:143:32
I. DemidovRW0112000016:493:29
A. NewhookC000121+1017:112:20
K. DachC0004310015:022:26
O. KapanenC0001000014:561:57
Z. BolducRW0003310013:592:31
P. DanaultC000022-3013:440:00
J. EvansC0000200012:190:00
A. TexierLW000200-2011:260:00
J. AndersonRW000020-209:250:00
N. DobsonD022101+1021:292:40
L. HutsonD000212-3026:123:22
M. MathesonD000210-1020:500:00
K. GuhleD0002110018:210:00
A. CarrierD0001000013:550:00
J. StrubleD0000300011:140:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Dobes21183.85757:29Loss
J. Fowler000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini18:13W. Smith14:54C. Graf13:59
Line 2T. Toffoli13:03M. Misa13:06W. Eklund20:35
Line 3A. Wennberg12:31K. Sherwood11:49B. Goodrow10:23
Line 4A. Gaudette10:07Z. Ostapchuk8:40
Pair 1D. Orlov19:21J. Klingberg17:11
Pair 2S. Dickinson14:13V. Desharnais16:17
Pair 3M. Ferraro17:19S. Mukhamadullin14:36

MTL

Line 1J. Slafkovský15:46N. Suzuki15:56C. Caufield14:40
Line 2A. Newhook14:18O. Kapanen11:48I. Demidov11:22
Line 3J. Evans10:58K. Dach12:36Z. Bolduc10:55
Line 4J. Anderson8:40A. Texier10:49P. Danault10:22
Pair 1L. Hutson20:44K. Guhle17:34
Pair 2M. Matheson18:55N. Dobson17:33
Pair 3A. Carrier12:35J. Struble11:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSJS 3.0, MTL 3.8SJS 4, MTL 2
Total goals6.86
Shots on goalSJS 26.0, MTL 29.1SJS 22, MTL 27
Win chanceMTL 62%SJS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SJS M. Celebrini3.631.26335%2
MTL C. Caufield2.930.91136%1
SJS W. Smith2.400.87028%0
MTL J. Slafkovský2.310.86128%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.321.11130%1
SJS K. Sherwood2.230.49024%0
SJS T. Toffoli2.200.64026%0
MTL N. Dobson2.110.69214%0
SJS W. Eklund1.930.56116%0
MTL A. Texier1.820.56021%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.710.51023%0
MTL M. Matheson1.620.55011%0
MTL I. Demidov1.620.86121%0
SJS I. Chernyshov1.600.54016%0
MTL L. Hutson1.521.08013%0
SJS C. Graf1.530.50320%1
MTL K. Dach1.440.46018%0
MTL A. Newhook1.410.48019%0
MTL J. Anderson1.400.37019%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.430.47019%0
MTL P. Danault1.400.49016%0
SJS J. Klingberg1.310.41210%0
SJS A. Gaudette1.310.33018%0
MTL K. Guhle1.320.40010%0
SJS M. Misa1.330.53017%0
SJS A. Wennberg1.200.59117%0
MTL J. Evans1.200.49016%0
SJS D. Orlov1.200.4208%0
SJS S. Dickinson1.100.2504%0
SJS M. Ferraro1.120.2315%1
SJS S. Mukhamadullin0.920.2407%0
MTL A. Carrier0.910.3207%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.800.1618%0
SJS V. Desharnais0.700.1302%0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk0.610.1207%0
MTL J. Struble0.400.1803%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.