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Game Recap
SJS4
Final/OTTue, Oct 20, 2026Every game that night
MTL3

SJS beat MTL 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.26 expected goals to 3.09. M. Celebrini led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). P. Danault had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 31 of 34.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
SJS10214
MTL12003
  1. 1st 13:49SJSM. Celebrini0.26 xG
  2. 1st 16:38MTLN. Suzuki0.17 xG
  3. 2nd 1:49MTLJ. Slafkovský0.27 xG
  4. 2nd 14:03MTLC. Caufield0.28 xG
  5. 3rd 5:36SJSM. Misa0.22 xG
  6. 3rd 11:09SJST. ToffoliPP0.21 xG
  7. OT 2:13SJSM. CelebriniPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

SJSMTL
30Shots on goal34
3.26Expected goals3.09
49Shot attempts75
255v5 shots on goal32
2/3Power play0/2
22Hits15
21Blocked shots8
10Penalty minutes10
20Giveaways16
4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.26 xGMTL 3.09 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdOTSJS goal, 13:49MTL goal, 16:38MTL goal, 1:49MTL goal, 14:03SJS goal, 5:36SJS goal, 11:09SJS goal, 2:13

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS29 on goal, 4 scored
MTL32 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CelebriniC213611-1023:073:18
W. SmithC011100-1018:502:48
I. StenbergLW0113020017:442:49
K. SherwoodLW0112710016:141:09
M. MisaC1013000214:090:38
T. ToffoliC1011010012:181:07
I. ChernyshovLW000101-1017:021:08
C. GrafRW0003030015:500:00
M. MarchmentLW0002110015:062:47
T. DellandreaC0001210211:370:00
B. GoodrowC0001000211:320:00
Z. OstapchukC0000200210:510:00
J. TroubaD011154-1023:081:04
M. KesselringD000100-1220:310:00
D. NurseD0000120020:200:00
S. DickinsonD000012-1020:150:00
D. OrlovD000202+1017:332:32
N. AllanD0002200016:520:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Nedeljkovic34313.91262:13Win
Y. Askarov000–0:00

MTL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. SuzukiC112401+3021:032:08
C. CaufieldRW112300+3019:362:18
J. SlafkovskýLW112110+2217:162:15
P. DanaultC011410+1015:440:00
A. NewhookC000120-1016:211:52
J. AndersonRW000201-2016:130:01
C. KreiderLW000110-1015:281:42
Z. BolducRW0000410014:552:10
J. EvansC000100-1013:590:00
A. TexierLW0001110213:101:44
O. KapanenC0002000010:301:39
K. DachC000110-1010:150:00
L. HutsonD011213+1025:462:29
K. GuhleD0003200222:510:11
A. CarrierD000100+1022:130:00
N. DobsonD0004100021:441:31
A. XhekajD0001010413:140:00
A. EngstromD0002000012:560:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Dobes30264.86762:02OT loss
J. Fowler000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini18:11I. Chernyshov15:54W. Smith15:28
Line 2K. Sherwood13:47I. Stenberg13:36M. Misa13:31
Line 3M. Marchment12:19C. Graf13:03T. Toffoli11:11
Line 4B. Goodrow9:31T. Dellandrea10:46Z. Ostapchuk9:02
Pair 1J. Trouba19:10S. Dickinson17:55
Pair 2D. Nurse17:44M. Kesselring18:26
Pair 3D. Orlov14:50N. Allan16:41

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki16:51C. Caufield15:44J. Slafkovský15:01
Line 2C. Kreider13:46J. Anderson14:46A. Newhook12:56
Line 3P. Danault13:20Z. Bolduc12:45A. Texier11:26
Line 4J. Evans11:21K. Dach10:04O. Kapanen8:40
Pair 1A. Carrier19:36K. Guhle20:03
Pair 2L. Hutson21:24N. Dobson18:52
Pair 3A. Xhekaj12:25A. Engstrom12:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 19 overs hit (42%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
MTL C. Caufield3.5-106-1153Under
SJS M. Celebrini3.5+125-1606Over
MTL J. Slafkovský2.5+105-1251Under
MTL N. Dobson2.5+148-1804Over
MTL N. Suzuki2.5+110-1304Over
SJS W. Smith2.5+142-1701Under
MTL A. Newhook1.5-128+1051Under
MTL A. Texier1.5+100-1151Under
MTL C. Kreider1.5+100-1301Under
SJS D. Nurse1.5-125-1050Under
SJS D. Orlov1.5+135-1802Over
SJS I. Chernyshov1.5+110-1201Under
MTL K. Guhle1.5+115-1503Over
SJS K. Sherwood1.5-105-1252Over
MTL L. Hutson1.5-155+1202Over
SJS M. Kesselring1.5+110-1401Under
SJS M. Marchment1.5+110-1352Over
SJS T. Toffoli1.5-125+1051Under
MTL Z. Bolduc1.5-135+1100Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSJS 2.8, MTL 3.5SJS 4, MTL 3
Total goals6.37
Shots on goalSJS 25.9, MTL 27.6SJS 30, MTL 34
Win chanceMTL 62%SJS won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SJS M. Celebrini3.561.14335%2
MTL C. Caufield3.431.06242%1
MTL J. Slafkovský2.510.90230%1
SJS W. Smith2.510.82129%0
MTL N. Suzuki2.541.26235%1
MTL N. Dobson2.040.57013%0
SJS D. Nurse2.000.3008%0
SJS T. Toffoli1.910.47120%1
SJS K. Sherwood1.820.37118%0
MTL L. Hutson1.721.11116%0
SJS J. Trouba1.710.3117%0
MTL A. Newhook1.710.58024%0
MTL C. Kreider1.710.69031%0
SJS M. Marchment1.620.52021%0
MTL J. Anderson1.620.42021%0
SJS M. Kesselring1.610.2605%0
SJS I. Chernyshov1.510.50019%0
MTL Z. Bolduc1.500.52021%0
MTL A. Texier1.410.45017%0
SJS I. Stenberg1.430.42116%0
MTL P. Danault1.340.49118%0
SJS C. Graf1.330.38016%0
SJS M. Misa1.330.40114%1
MTL K. Guhle1.130.4009%0
MTL O. Kapanen1.120.29013%0
MTL J. Evans1.010.40014%0
SJS S. Dickinson1.000.2104%0
SJS D. Orlov1.020.3406%0
SJS T. Dellandrea1.010.2008%0
MTL K. Dach0.910.29012%0
MTL A. Carrier0.910.4009%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.810.1408%0
MTL A. Engstrom0.820.1103%0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk0.800.0906%0
MTL A. Xhekaj0.710.1104%0
SJS N. Allan0.520.1804%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.