NSH beat SJS 7-5, and the chances backed it up: 3.92 expected goals to 1.90. NSH outshot SJS 41 to 24. J. Marchessault led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Barron had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Annunen stopped 15 of 16.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 1.90 xGNSH 3.92 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 20:24 | 3:40 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 3:39 |
| M. Granlund | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:41 | 3:55 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 3:47 |
| L. Kunin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 2:05 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:05 | 2:10 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:51 | 2:13 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:00 | 2:30 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:00 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 22:04 | 3:09 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:59 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:11 | 2:12 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 40 | 34 | 6 | .850 | 58:57 | Loss |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Marchessault | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 4:02 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:00 | 4:00 |
| T. Novak | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:28 | 1:12 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:13 | 4:23 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:09 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:33 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 3:20 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:30 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:38 | 0:00 |
| R. Josi | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 25:04 | 3:59 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 0:00 |
| J. Barron | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:36 | 0:00 |
| L. Schenn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 2 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:17 | 0:32 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 8 | 4 | 4 | .500 | 20:00 | |
| J. Annunen | 16 | 15 | 1 | .938 | 40:00 | Win |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.4, NSH 3.7 | SJS 5, NSH 7 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 12 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 25.2, NSH 34.6 | SJS 24, NSH 41 |
| Win chance | NSH 71% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.8 | 3 | 1.23 | 3 | 42% | 1 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 3.6 | 4 | 1.09 | 3 | 42% | 1 |
| NSH R. Josi | 3.4 | 6 | 1.19 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.8 | 3 | 0.66 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.7 | 3 | 1.11 | 2 | 41% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.3 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.1 | 3 | 0.42 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 1.9 | 3 | 0.65 | 2 | 15% | 2 |
| NSH G. Nyquist | 1.7 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| NSH T. Novak | 1.6 | 2 | 0.57 | 3 | 21% | 1 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.6 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| NSH V. Hinostroza | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.5 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.5 | 3 | 0.54 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.4 | 0 | 0.39 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.4 | 4 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.3 | 5 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| NSH L. Schenn | 1.3 | 2 | 0.18 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.3 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.