Game Recap: SJS 3, NSH 6, March 24, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night

NSH6

NSH beat SJS 6-3, with the chances close: 2.21 expected goals to 2.45. SJS outshot NSH 30 to 19. F. Forsberg led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). W. Smith had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. J. Saros stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	1	1	3
NSH	5	1	0	6

1st 2:34NSHF. Forsberg0.09 xG
1st 6:25SJSA. Gaudette0.07 xG
1st 7:49NSHM. Wood0.09 xG
1st 11:40NSHR. Josi0.14 xG
1st 12:26NSHL. Evangelista0.16 xG
1st 16:36NSHB. Skjei0.02 xG
2nd 12:38NSHS. StamkosPP0.06 xG
2nd 17:26SJSW. SmithPP0.20 xG
3rd 1:40SJSW. Smith0.14 xG

Team Stats

SJSNSH

30Shots on goal19

2.45Expected goals2.21

66Shot attempts41

235v5 shots on goal15

1/4Power play1/2

28Hits20

10Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways16

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.45 xGNSH 2.21 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS30 on goal, 3 scored

NSH17 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	2	0	2	6	0	0	0	0	20:31	5:46
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	2	16:00	0:35
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	9:14	0:00
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	21:05	5:48
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	18:54	5:43
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:02	5:45
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-3	2	15:36	0:49
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:03	0:54
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	13:58	0:00
P. Regenda	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-3	0	13:44	0:47
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	11:06	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	10:58	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	22:20	0:17
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:47	0:12
V. Desharnais	D	0	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	16:57	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	-2	0	23:09	3:06
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	19:07	3:13
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	14:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	19	13	6	.684	60:00	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	2	3	3	1	3	+2	0	15:08	2:05
J. Marchessault	RW	0	3	3	1	0	0	+3	0	14:44	2:05
R. O'Reilly	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	2	16:31	2:05
M. Wood	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	15:43	1:09
L. Evangelista	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	14:03	1:09
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	13:17	2:05
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	2	11:59	0:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	17:51	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	2	15:51	1:08
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	15:47	1:09
J. Kemell	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:19	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	11:33	0:00
B. Skjei	D	1	1	2	2	0	1	+4	0	21:52	0:00
R. Josi	D	1	0	1	3	0	0	+3	0	23:28	2:05
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	23:37	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	19:11	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:03	0:01
R. Ufko	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:51	1:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	30	27	3	.900	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini15:17I. Chernyshov15:25W. Smith14:45

Line 2K. Sherwood14:47M. Misa14:09P. Regenda12:57

Line 3A. Wennberg11:01W. Eklund11:17C. Graf11:34

Line 4B. Goodrow10:08Z. Ostapchuk10:02A. Gaudette9:14

Pair 1D. Orlov20:03J. Klingberg15:54

Pair 2M. Ferraro18:49S. Mukhamadullin17:35

Pair 3V. Desharnais13:43S. Dickinson14:15

NSH

Line 1J. Marchessault12:39M. Wood14:34F. Forsberg13:03

Line 2R. O'Reilly13:02L. Evangelista12:54S. Stamkos11:12

Line 3T. Jost13:44Z. L'Heureux12:35E. Haula11:03

Line 4F. Svechkov11:39R. Schaefer11:33J. Kemell12:22

Pair 1N. Hague19:49A. Wilsby18:54

Pair 2R. Josi17:47B. Skjei19:04

Pair 3N. Perbix13:19R. Ufko11:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKiefer Sherwood SJS Faces NSH, his team until May 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 3.0, NSH 3.4	SJS 3, NSH 6
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	SJS 27.3, NSH 29.8	SJS 30, NSH 19
Win chance	NSH 56%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.7	3	1.28	0	35%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	3	1.10	3	41%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.8	3	1.03	1	23%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.6	1	0.81	3	32%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	2	0.95	1	39%	1
SJS W. Smith	2.5	6	0.82	2	27%	2
SJS K. Sherwood	2.4	1	0.52	0	24%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.3	0	0.98	2	31%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	2	0.68	1	19%	1
SJS W. Eklund	2.1	1	0.65	0	18%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.9	0	0.55	0	22%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.7	2	0.33	0	18%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	2	0.53	2	13%	1
NSH T. Jost	1.7	1	0.34	0	14%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	1	0.48	1	22%	1
SJS M. Misa	1.5	1	0.54	0	18%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.5	1	0.50	0	19%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.5	0	0.28	0	13%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.4	1	0.44	1	13%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	2	0.32	1	17%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	1	0.59	0	16%	0
NSH J. Kemell	1.2	2	0.20	0	11%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	2	0.45	0	10%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.2	1	0.38	0	10%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.2	1	0.30	0	7%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.27	1	7%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	2	0.26	0	4%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.28	0	7%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.0	0	0.28	1	11%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	2	0.26	1	7%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.9	0	0.22	0	12%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.17	0	8%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.8	1	0.12	0	6%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.7	1	0.14	1	2%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.6	0	0.42	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.