Game Recap: SJS 3, NSH 2, April 13, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalMon, Apr 13, 2026Every game that night

NSH2

SJS beat NSH 3-2, with the chances close: 3.33 expected goals to 2.92. L. Evangelista led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Stamkos had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	0	1	2	3
NSH	0	0	2	2

2nd 9:53SJSI. ChernyshovPP0.11 xG
3rd 3:04SJSM. Celebrini0.24 xG
3rd 15:39NSHL. Evangelista0.15 xG
3rd 18:15SJSM. CelebriniEN0.85 xG
3rd 18:50NSHL. Evangelista0.26 xG

Team Stats

SJSNSH

23Shots on goal28

3.33Expected goals2.92

52Shot attempts61

215v5 shots on goal23

1/1Power play0/1

28Hits18

14Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes2

18Giveaways11

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.33 xGNSH 2.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS23 on goal, 3 scored

NSH28 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	2	0	2	2	1	0	+2	0	19:34	1:25
I. Chernyshov	LW	1	1	2	3	1	1	+1	0	15:02	0:36
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	20:54	1:22
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-2	0	16:57	0:37
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:30	0:00
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:28	1:23
M. Misa	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	10:58	0:34
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	16:33	0:39
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:01	0:00
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:55	1:20
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	-1	0	11:40	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	11:17	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	2	22:42	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	20:59	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	20:03	0:30
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	+2	0	19:56	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	19:45	0:00
L. Cagnoni	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	14:53	1:29

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	28	26	2	.929	59:53	Win
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Evangelista	RW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	0	19:06	0:00
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	9	1	0	0	2	22:50	2:00
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	22:19	2:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	22:09	2:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	18:29	2:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	17:34	0:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:52	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	11:49	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:39	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:02	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:36	0:00
J. Kemell	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5:11	0:00
R. Ufko	D	0	2	2	2	1	0	+1	0	16:30	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	25:48	2:00
N. Perbix	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	16:15	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:02	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:17	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	17:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	22	20	2	.909	58:08	Loss
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1K. Sherwood15:54W. Eklund15:34A. Wennberg16:26

Line 2W. Smith14:58M. Celebrini16:31I. Chernyshov14:19

Line 3T. Toffoli10:28C. Graf13:25M. Misa10:24

Line 4B. Goodrow10:53Z. Ostapchuk11:40A. Gaudette11:17

Pair 1M. Ferraro21:11S. Dickinson19:45

Pair 2D. Orlov19:05S. Mukhamadullin18:31

Pair 3V. Desharnais16:25L. Cagnoni13:24

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos18:51R. O'Reilly18:29L. Evangelista17:35

Line 2F. Forsberg18:27J. Marchessault15:26E. Haula15:24

Line 3T. Jost14:12F. Svechkov11:42R. Schaefer6:36

Line 4Z. L'Heureux8:42J. Kemell5:11

Pair 1R. Josi21:13B. Skjei21:32

Pair 2J. Barron17:25A. Wilsby17:41

Pair 3R. Ufko15:41N. Perbix14:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamKiefer Sherwood SJS Faces NSH, his team until May 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 3.0, NSH 3.5	SJS 3, NSH 2
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	SJS 27.0, NSH 29.3	SJS 23, NSH 28
Win chance	NSH 57%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.6	2	1.21	2	35%	2
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	2	1.07	0	39%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	9	0.95	0	39%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	2	0.92	1	22%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.4	2	0.82	1	27%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	0	0.75	0	30%	0
SJS K. Sherwood	2.2	3	0.46	0	22%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	4	1.00	0	30%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.0	1	0.56	0	23%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.0	3	0.59	2	16%	2
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	1	0.56	1	16%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.8	1	0.37	0	14%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.6	1	0.46	0	19%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.6	3	0.51	2	18%	1
SJS C. Graf	1.5	1	0.48	1	18%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.5	1	0.31	0	14%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.5	0	0.48	0	21%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	0	0.51	0	13%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	0	0.37	0	5%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	0	0.59	1	17%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	2	0.44	0	8%	0
NSH J. Kemell	1.2	0	0.27	0	12%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.2	1	0.39	1	14%	0
SJS L. Cagnoni	1.1	1	0.30	0	6%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.25	0	6%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.1	2	0.26	0	15%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.0	0	0.22	0	3%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.0	1	0.33	0	12%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	1	0.25	0	7%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.26	1	6%	0
NSH J. Barron	0.9	1	0.28	0	9%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.16	0	8%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	1	0.20	0	12%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.7	0	0.14	0	2%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	1	0.11	0	6%	0
NSH R. Ufko	0.7	2	0.44	2	9%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.