Game Recap: SJS 3, NSH 2 (SO), October 15, 2026

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Game Recap

SJS3

Final/SOThu, Oct 15, 2026Every game that night

NSH2

SJS beat NSH 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.84 expected goals to 4.25. R. Josi had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 32 of 34.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
SJS	1	0	1	1	3
NSH	0	0	2	0	2

1st 5:30SJSM. Marchment0.22 xG
3rd 4:28SJSW. Smith0.13 xG
3rd 9:05NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.46 xG
3rd 19:59NSHS. Stamkos0.13 xG

Team Stats

SJSNSH

32Shots on goal34

3.84Expected goals4.25

71Shot attempts81

245v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play1/4

13Hits20

22Blocked shots17

13Penalty minutes11

17Giveaways12

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 3.84 xGNSH 4.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS31 on goal, 2 scored

NSH34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	21:54	3:30
W. Smith	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	+1	0	19:48	4:09
M. Marchment	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	15:39	1:51
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	13:32	2:27
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	11:10	1:25
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	23:39	4:28
K. Sherwood	LW	0	0	0	5	3	1	0	0	19:16	0:03
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:53	0:00
I. Stenberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:01	4:09
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:02	1:51
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	4	1	3	0	0	12:01	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	9	10:14	0:00
M. Kesselring	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	18:58	0:00
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	1	1	5	-1	2	24:39	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	24:33	0:07
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	18:36	2:54
L. Cagnoni	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	16:35	3:06
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+2	0	15:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	34	32	2	.941	65:00	Win
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	6	2	1	+1	0	24:17	4:43
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	21:43	4:07
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	20:34	4:39
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	17:45	4:14
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	20:03	2:55
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	19:39	2:50
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:05	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:12	2:19
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	12:58	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	4	10:37	0:00
V. Pinchuk	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	8:19	2:11
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	8:13	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	28:31	4:53
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:49	0:09
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	19:33	2:09
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:51	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	7	15:25	0:01
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	32	30	2	.938	62:48	OT loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith12:25M. Celebrini13:10I. Chernyshov9:45

Line 2A. Wennberg13:06M. Marchment13:28T. Toffoli11:05

Line 3K. Sherwood14:20M. Misa10:12I. Stenberg8:31

Line 4Z. Ostapchuk9:28C. Graf10:39B. Goodrow8:27

Pair 1S. Dickinson17:59J. Trouba17:32

Pair 2D. Orlov15:28M. Kesselring14:16

Pair 3L. Cagnoni12:27N. Allan11:32

NSH

Line 1F. Forsberg15:37M. Wood13:28N. Hoglander8:13

Line 2J. Drury12:30R. Schaefer10:37A. Edstrom10:41

Line 3S. Stamkos12:21R. O'Reilly10:59A. Kerfoot11:49

Line 4J. Marchessault10:38V. Pinchuk6:08R. Colton10:53

Pair 1B. Skjei12:40N. Perbix12:38

Pair 2R. Josi16:26A. Wilsby18:50

Pair 3N. Hague14:57J. Struble14:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 17 overs hit (59%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	+126	-140	3	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-170	+136	6	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	+155	-188	2	Under
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+130	-150	8	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	-105	-110	2	Under
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	+145	-170	1	Under
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	+185	–	2	Over
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.5	-105	-125	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	1.5	-110	-114	1	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	1.5	-150	+130	5	Over
SJS L. Cagnoni	1.5	+125	-185	2	Over
SJS M. Marchment	1.5	-114	-111	2	Over
NSH M. Wood	1.5	-105	-115	3	Over
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-106	-115	1	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-135	+115	4	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	1.5	-165	+135	3	Over
SJS W. Smith	1.5	-180	+180	5	Over

4 of 33 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+525	-800	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+450	-550	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
SJS B. Goodrow	0.5	+1200	-2800	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+850	-1600	0	Under
SJS C. Graf	0.5	+550	-1000	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+950	-2000	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+180	-225	0	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+350	-470	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+260	-330	0	Under
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+1100	–	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+480	-650	0	Under
SJS L. Cagnoni	0.5	+900	–	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under
SJS M. Kesselring	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+380	-600	1	Over
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+525	-750	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+330	-550	0	Under
SJS N. Allan	0.5	+2000	–	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+210	-280	1	Over
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+850	-1200	0	Under
SJS S. Dickinson	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+165	-200	1	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+280	-320	1	Over
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	+1200	-1600	0	Under

6 of 20 overs hit (30%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+280	-275	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+220	-220	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+280	-295	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+225	-220	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+130	-140	1	Over
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+240	-275	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+165	-210	1	Over
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+220	-310	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+360	-525	0	Under
SJS L. Cagnoni	0.5	+270	-400	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	-145	+115	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+255	-275	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+270	-360	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+390	-575	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-104	-105	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+125	-140	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+145	-165	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+260	-350	1	Over
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+142	-165	0	Under

10 of 20 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
SJS M. Celebrini	1.5	+135	-170	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+154	-175	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+130	-130	1	Over
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+200	-220	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+162	-160	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-184	+160	1	Over
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+125	-135	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	-118	-110	1	Over
SJS J. Trouba	0.5	+175	-240	0	Under
SJS K. Sherwood	0.5	+195	-200	0	Under
SJS L. Cagnoni	0.5	+230	-325	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+130	-150	1	Over
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+160	-165	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+190	-210	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-160	+135	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-160	+140	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-175	+145	1	Over
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+140	-150	1	Over
SJS W. Smith	0.5	-125	+120	1	Over

3 of 18 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
SJS A. Wennberg	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
SJS D. Orlov	0.5	+250	-425	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+150	-210	0	Under
SJS I. Chernyshov	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+333	-425	1	Over
SJS L. Cagnoni	0.5	+380	-1000	0	Under
SJS M. Celebrini	0.5	+188	-190	0	Under
SJS M. Marchment	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
SJS M. Misa	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+450	-800	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+180	-240	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+200	-250	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+165	-210	0	Under
SJS T. Toffoli	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
SJS W. Smith	0.5	+200	-300	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NSH J. Saros	25.5	-106	-120	30	Over
SJS A. Nedeljkovic	23.5	+100	-120	32	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NSH R. Josi	1.5	-125	-115	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	-150	+105	2	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.9, NSH 3.2	SJS 3, NSH 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	SJS 26.8, NSH 27.6	SJS 32, NSH 34
Win chance	NSH 55%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	3	1.19	0	34%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.4	6	1.21	1	43%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.7	2	1.02	1	41%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	3	0.63	1	25%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.5	8	0.99	1	23%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	2	0.81	1	32%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.4	5	0.80	1	27%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.2	4	1.07	1	33%	1
NSH R. Colton	2.1	1	0.48	0	20%	0
SJS M. Marchment	2.0	2	0.67	1	25%	1
SJS K. Sherwood	1.9	5	0.44	0	20%	0
SJS J. Trouba	1.8	1	0.32	0	8%	0
SJS I. Chernyshov	1.8	0	0.60	1	21%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	3	0.50	0	22%	0
SJS M. Kesselring	1.5	1	0.23	1	5%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.4	0	0.41	0	16%	0
SJS I. Stenberg	1.3	1	0.43	0	16%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	0	0.62	1	19%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.3	1	0.44	0	15%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.3	1	0.44	0	12%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.3	1	0.30	0	16%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.2	0	0.38	0	15%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.2	2	0.36	0	17%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	0	0.35	0	5%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	1.1	0	0.49	0	17%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.0	2	0.33	0	6%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	0.9	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NSH N. Perbix	0.9	0	0.27	0	7%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.9	0	0.18	0	10%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	4	0.24	0	6%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	4	0.17	0	9%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.8	1	0.11	0	7%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.5	0	0.20	0	4%	0
SJS N. Allan	0.5	0	0.20	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.