Game Recap: SJS 3, NYI 4, October 21, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalTue, Oct 21, 2025Every game that night

NYI4

NYI beat SJS 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.03 expected goals to 4.10. SJS outshot NYI 36 to 27. M. Schaefer led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Skinner had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. I. Sorokin stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	2	0	1	3
NYI	3	1	0	4

1st 8:29SJSC. GrafSH0.25 xG
1st 9:26NYIB. HorvatPP0.11 xG
1st 10:30NYIC. Cizikas0.13 xG
1st 14:16SJSA. Gaudette0.23 xG
1st 19:28NYIE. HeinemanPP0.18 xG
2nd 6:38NYIM. Schaefer0.59 xG
3rd 10:16SJSM. Celebrini0.14 xG

Team Stats

SJSNYI

36Shots on goal27

4.10Expected goals3.03

68Shot attempts48

295v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play2/3

22Hits18

6Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes6

21Giveaways21

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 4.10 xGNYI 3.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS36 on goal, 3 scored

NYI26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Graf	RW	1	1	2	2	2	0	+1	0	15:02	0:14
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	6	0	2	+1	0	22:45	3:23
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	13:38	2:20
M. Misa	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:42	2:27
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	11:04	0:15
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	21:32	3:20
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	20:01	3:18
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	19:28	2:26
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	17:58	3:16
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	0	15:49	2:25
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:46	0:12
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	5:18	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	24:37	3:33
M. Ferraro	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	+1	2	19:20	0:09
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:55	0:07
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:04	0:00
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	15:47	0:09
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	15:39	2:16

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	27	23	4	.852	57:49	Loss
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Palmieri	C	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	0	21:29	3:57
M. Barzal	C	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	21:25	4:14
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	20:53	4:05
A. Lee	LW	0	1	1	5	0	1	0	0	14:58	0:47
A. Duclair	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:33	0:30
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	1	1	2	1	2	-1	0	13:20	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	13:20	0:30
M. Shabanov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	10:15	0:30
C. Cizikas	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-1	0	7:08	0:00
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	2	18:19	4:10
J. Pageau	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	15:55	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:36	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	1	1	2	4	0	1	+1	0	22:34	3:47
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	24:20	0:09
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	2	3	3	-1	0	23:35	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	4	19:03	0:04
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:12	0:20
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:16	0:37

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	36	33	3	.917	59:49	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith15:56M. Celebrini17:00T. Toffoli14:29

Line 2A. Wennberg12:22W. Eklund12:25J. Skinner13:16

Line 3A. Gaudette11:18M. Misa10:15C. Graf12:26

Line 4B. Goodrow7:22T. Dellandrea8:20R. Reaves5:18

Pair 1N. Leddy16:55V. Iorio16:40

Pair 2D. Orlov17:00M. Ferraro17:11

Pair 3V. Desharnais12:54S. Dickinson13:23

NYI

Line 1K. Palmieri13:51M. Barzal15:45A. Duclair13:56

Line 2J. Drouin14:09E. Heineman12:50B. Horvat13:09

Line 3A. Lee13:05J. Pageau11:11M. Shabanov9:45

Line 4C. Cizikas7:08S. Holmstrom8:55M. Tsyplakov6:25

Pair 1A. Pelech18:39R. Pulock19:12

Pair 2S. Mayfield17:06M. Schaefer15:23

Pair 3T. DeAngelo12:22A. Boqvist11:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAnthony Duclair NYI Faces SJS, his team until Mar 20241 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, NYI 3.8	SJS 3, NYI 4
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	SJS 25.9, NYI 34.2	SJS 36, NYI 27
Win chance	NYI 68%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.5	1	1.05	1	39%	1
NYI M. Barzal	3.2	1	1.23	1	30%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.9	6	0.81	1	25%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.8	2	0.72	0	30%	0
NYI K. Palmieri	2.8	2	0.91	1	35%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.6	5	0.69	1	29%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.4	4	0.67	2	9%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.3	3	0.70	0	14%	0
SJS J. Skinner	2.1	6	0.55	0	24%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	4	0.66	0	19%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.8	4	0.65	0	20%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.7	2	0.56	1	26%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.6	1	0.44	1	8%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.5	1	0.47	1	17%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	2	0.35	0	4%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	0	0.83	0	19%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.4	0	0.43	0	13%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.4	0	0.55	0	17%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	1	0.37	0	7%	0
NYI A. Boqvist	1.2	1	0.42	0	10%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.2	2	0.28	2	13%	1
NYI C. Cizikas	1.2	1	0.28	1	11%	1
NYI E. Heineman	1.2	1	0.38	1	18%	1
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.24	1	5%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	0	0.45	0	14%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.1	3	0.30	1	15%	1
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	2	0.48	1	19%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.1	0	0.25	0	5%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.0	1	0.22	1	8%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	1	0.19	0	10%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.8	0	0.12	0	2%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.7	0	0.25	0	3%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	1	0.12	0	1%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	1	0.14	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.