Game Recap: SJS 2, NYR 3, November 14, 2024

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Game Recap

SJS2

FinalThu, Nov 14, 2024Every game that night

NYR3

NYR beat SJS 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.78 expected goals to 1.96. NYR outshot SJS 35 to 27. M. Granlund had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. I. Shesterkin stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	0	1	2
NYR	0	3	0	3

1st 2:51SJST. Liljegren0.01 xG
2nd 11:41NYRM. Zibanejad0.03 xG
2nd 13:15NYRJ. Vesey0.11 xG
2nd 16:21NYRV. Trocheck0.04 xG
3rd 19:33SJSF. ZetterlundPP0.21 xG

Team Stats

SJSNYR

27Shots on goal35

1.96Expected goals2.78

51Shot attempts65

215v5 shots on goal31

1/3Power play0/1

31Hits34

14Blocked shots14

4Penalty minutes6

20Giveaways7

4Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.96 xGNYR 2.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS25 on goal, 2 scored

NYR33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	2	21:25	1:12
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	4	3	1	0	0	19:25	0:33
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	15:13	1:36
L. Kunin	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	12:25	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	5:27	0:00
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	7	0	2	0	0	23:28	1:56
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	20:55	1:57
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	17:29	0:48
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:03	1:54
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-2	2	14:36	1:07
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	13:21	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	8	0	+1	0	10:22	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:56	0:59
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	22:35	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:18	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:31	0:00
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	13:28	0:00
J. Thompson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	13:05	0:49

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	35	32	3	.914	56:58	Loss
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	2	7	2	+1	0	21:50	1:44
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	5	0	0	+1	0	20:23	1:47
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	2	17:10	1:26
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:54	0:16
R. Smith	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:09	0:34
S. Carrick	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	13:11	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	10:04	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	+1	0	15:51	1:48
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:36	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:59	0:12
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:02	0:00
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:37	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	22:50	1:18
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	4	4	1	+1	0	22:59	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	20:13	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	+2	0	19:40	0:13
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	2	17:39	0:42
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	15:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	27	25	2	.926	59:31	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Wennberg SJS Faces NYR, his team until Jun 20240 SOG
Old teamJacob Trouba SJS Faces NYR, his team until Dec 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.4, NYR 4.1	SJS 2, NYR 3
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	SJS 27.4, NYR 34.8	SJS 27, NYR 35
Win chance	NYR 74%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.2	5	1.44	1	38%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.9	0	0.62	1	27%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	2.8	3	0.55	0	22%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.7	5	0.92	0	42%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.7	2	1.05	1	31%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	1	1.04	1	31%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.4	2	0.79	1	29%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.3	7	0.73	0	17%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.3	4	0.47	1	19%	1
NYR F. Chytil	2.2	1	0.58	0	21%	0
NYR J. Trouba	2.0	1	0.42	0	8%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.0	1	1.06	1	15%	0
NYR R. Smith	2.0	2	0.71	1	24%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	2	0.45	0	20%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.7	1	0.53	1	16%	0
NYR K. Kakko	1.5	0	0.43	0	18%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.4	1	0.35	0	6%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.4	4	0.43	0	10%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	0	0.31	0	7%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.3	0	0.23	0	10%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.3	1	0.19	0	10%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.3	0	0.25	0	4%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.2	1	0.26	0	13%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.2	1	0.25	1	13%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	1	0.18	0	3%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	0	0.33	0	12%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.1	3	0.29	1	12%	1
SJS B. Goodrow	1.1	2	0.25	0	12%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	1.1	2	0.30	0	6%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	1	0.28	1	5%	1
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	2	0.23	1	12%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.0	2	0.27	0	5%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	1	0.24	0	13%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.17	1	8%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.8	1	0.17	0	4%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.8	1	0.22	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.