Game Recap: SJS 6, NYR 5 (OT), October 23, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS6

Final/OTThu, Oct 23, 2025Every game that night

NYR5

SJS beat NYR 6-5 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.99 expected goals to 2.69. M. Celebrini scored three for SJS. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 23 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SJS	3	1	1	1	6
NYR	1	3	1	0	5

1st 1:58SJSA. Gaudette0.19 xG
1st 6:17SJSM. CelebriniPP0.33 xG
1st 14:19NYRT. Raddysh0.03 xG
1st 19:51SJSM. Celebrini0.13 xG
2nd 4:04NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.15 xG
2nd 6:47NYRJ. Parssinen0.15 xG
2nd 12:10NYRT. RaddyshSH0.13 xG
2nd 19:54SJSM. Celebrini0.08 xG
3rd 6:31SJSW. Smith0.04 xG
3rd 11:50NYRT. Raddysh0.05 xG
OT 1:38SJSW. Smith0.21 xG

Team Stats

SJSNYR

24Shots on goal28

2.99Expected goals2.69

46Shot attempts62

165v5 shots on goal19

1/5Power play1/4

26Hits24

19Blocked shots10

13Penalty minutes15

20Giveaways11

1Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.99 xGNYR 2.69 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS24 on goal, 6 scored

NYR27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	3	2	5	5	1	1	+2	0	22:40	4:04
W. Smith	C	2	2	4	2	0	1	+2	2	19:40	4:02
W. Eklund	LW	0	3	3	4	1	3	-1	0	20:51	4:04
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	0	3	0	+1	0	13:48	0:00
A. Gaudette	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:37	1:56
M. Misa	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	10:03	1:59
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	22:36	3:58
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	17:37	4:01
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:19	1:56
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	12:45	0:12
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:48	0:12
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	5	6:22	0:12
D. Orlov	D	0	2	2	2	3	2	+1	0	23:19	2:25
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	2	26:50	1:47
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	24:19	0:12
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	2	21:22	0:00
V. Iorio	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	16:30	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	1:44	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	28	23	5	.821	61:14	Win
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Raddysh	RW	3	0	3	3	1	0	+2	2	15:21	0:00
J. Miller	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	-2	0	23:34	4:31
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	21:55	4:48
C. Sheary	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:39	1:35
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	-3	2	19:04	4:28
S. Carrick	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	11:49	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	6:31	0:00
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	23:16	5:34
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	3	7	0	-2	2	18:55	1:35
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	10:28	1:22
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	0	9:33	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0:19	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	-1	2	27:34	5:35
C. Soucy	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+3	0	11:25	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	26:16	0:17
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	0	18:13	0:16
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	16:53	0:17
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	16:03	0:22

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	24	18	6	.750	61:38	OT loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith14:21M. Celebrini17:13T. Toffoli13:36

Line 2A. Wennberg14:45W. Eklund15:37J. Skinner12:59

Line 3B. Goodrow9:06T. Dellandrea9:16R. Reaves6:10

Line 4A. Gaudette9:41M. Misa8:04C. Graf10:30

Pair 1D. Orlov18:12T. Liljegren21:05

Pair 2V. Desharnais18:38M. Ferraro19:50

Pair 3N. Leddy1:44V. Iorio15:33

NYR

Line 1C. Sheary17:50J. Miller16:40W. Cuylle16:26

Line 2A. Panarin16:37A. Lafrenière13:41M. Zibanejad13:05

Line 3S. Carrick10:15A. Edstrom9:33T. Raddysh13:24

Line 4N. Laba7:37J. Parssinen6:05

Pair 1A. Fox20:21V. Gavrikov23:10

Pair 2W. Borgen13:49M. Robertson15:11

Pair 3C. Soucy8:55B. Schneider13:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Wennberg SJS Faces NYR, his team until Jun 20241 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.5, NYR 3.9	SJS 6, NYR 5
Total goals	6.4	11
Shots on goal	SJS 25.7, NYR 31.8	SJS 24, NYR 28
Win chance	NYR 71%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.3	3	1.56	0	42%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	3.0	2	1.20	1	35%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.0	5	0.78	5	25%	3
SJS T. Toffoli	2.9	2	0.69	0	29%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.5	1	1.40	2	37%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.4	2	0.86	1	30%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.3	0	1.16	1	19%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.3	3	0.61	0	25%	0
SJS J. Skinner	2.2	1	0.53	0	24%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.9	2	0.63	4	20%	2
SJS W. Eklund	1.9	4	0.61	3	18%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.6	2	0.41	2	8%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.6	0	0.51	1	19%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	2	0.42	0	8%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.4	3	0.35	1	13%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.3	3	0.27	0	6%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.34	0	8%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.2	0	0.29	1	13%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	1	0.31	1	15%	1
NYR W. Borgen	1.2	3	0.32	0	6%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	1	0.42	0	13%	0
NYR M. Rempe	1.1	0	0.30	0	14%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.1	2	0.26	0	8%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.1	3	0.28	3	11%	3
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	0	0.28	0	13%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	1	0.21	0	7%	0
NYR N. Laba	0.9	0	0.26	0	10%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.22	1	7%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
SJS V. Iorio	0.8	0	0.10	0	2%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.7	1	0.32	1	12%	1
SJS N. Leddy	0.6	0	0.22	0	3%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	1	0.10	0	1%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	0	0.12	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.