Game Recap: SJS 4, SEA 2, November 30, 2024

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Game Recap

SJS4

FinalSat, Nov 30, 2024Every game that night

SEA2

SJS beat SEA 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.14 expected goals to 2.68. SEA outshot SJS 38 to 23. M. Granlund led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). B. Montour had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. M. Blackwood stopped 36 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	3	0	4
SEA	0	1	1	2

1st 16:54SJSM. Ferraro0.08 xG
2nd 1:51SJSL. Kunin0.05 xG
2nd 8:59SJSC. Ceci0.11 xG
2nd 9:45SJSW. Smith0.16 xG
2nd 10:17SEAJ. Schwartz0.01 xG
3rd 6:27SEAJ. McCann0.04 xG

Team Stats

SJSSEA

23Shots on goal38

2.14Expected goals2.68

55Shot attempts83

215v5 shots on goal35

0/1Power play0/2

11Hits21

21Blocked shots13

4Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways15

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.14 xGSEA 2.68 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS21 on goal, 4 scored

SEA37 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	0	2	2	1	0	2	+2	0	17:24	1:03
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	18:26	1:03
L. Kunin	C	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	2	16:23	0:09
W. Smith	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	13:44	0:50
K. Kostin	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	12:16	0:52
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	11:41	0:05
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	19:35	0:49
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	2	1	4	-1	0	17:50	1:03
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:50	0:48
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	12:42	1:03
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	10:34	0:07
E. Cardwell	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	9:20	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	2	2	0	0	3	+2	0	26:20	1:03
C. Ceci	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	0	24:31	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	+1	2	19:53	0:08
T. Liljegren	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	19:11	0:57
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:04	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	38	36	2	.947	60:00	Win
V. Vanecek	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	6	0	0	-1	0	20:13	2:29
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:01	2:27
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	18:21	1:32
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:49	1:20
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:37	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:41	1:28
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:01	1:28
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:57	2:31
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	14:36	0:05
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	4	6	1	0	0	11:25	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:56	0:00
M. Stephens	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:53	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	7	0	2	0	0	27:32	2:31
R. Evans	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	0	20:17	1:23
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	26:15	2:37
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	2	20:00	0:09
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	12:55	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	11:51	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	23	19	4	.826	56:40	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Wennberg SJS Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.6, SEA 3.5	SJS 4, SEA 2
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	SJS 25.3, SEA 31.9	SJS 23, SEA 38
Win chance	SEA 64%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA B. Montour	3.0	7	0.72	1	18%	0
SEA J. McCann	3.0	6	1.05	1	39%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	2.7	1	0.73	1	27%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	3	0.64	0	28%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.3	4	0.69	1	26%	1
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.2	3	0.75	1	26%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.1	1	0.55	0	22%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.0	0	0.36	2	12%	0
SJS M. Granlund	1.9	1	0.74	2	17%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	4	0.70	0	13%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	2	0.63	1	24%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.8	1	0.62	0	21%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.7	0	0.28	0	8%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.6	1	0.55	0	19%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.6	1	0.66	0	18%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	1	0.47	0	20%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.4	1	0.52	1	8%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.4	3	0.42	0	18%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.3	1	0.43	1	15%	1
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.3	0	0.27	0	6%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.2	0	0.16	0	10%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.2	2	0.29	1	15%	1
SEA T. Kartye	1.2	4	0.29	0	15%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	2	0.43	0	15%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	1	0.30	1	7%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	2	0.19	1	4%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.1	1	0.46	0	21%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.0	2	0.23	1	5%	1
SEA W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.23	0	4%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	1	0.20	1	8%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	2	0.17	0	4%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.22	0	10%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.7	1	0.27	1	13%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.7	0	0.22	0	8%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.7	1	0.20	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.