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Game Recap
SJS2
SEA6
SEA beat SJS 6-2, with the chances close: 2.78 expected goals to 2.18. C. Stephenson led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Oleksiak had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Daccord stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| SEA | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 3:55SEAC. Stephenson0.09 xG
- 1st 17:55SJSC. Grundstrom0.04 xG
- 2nd 2:03SEAO. Bjorkstrand0.20 xG
- 2nd 2:54SEAB. Montour0.11 xG
- 2nd 5:58SEAJ. Schwartz0.16 xG
- 2nd 7:52SEAB. MontourPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 8:06SJST. Toffoli0.13 xG
- 3rd 12:18SEAE. Tolvanen0.07 xG
Team Stats
SJSSEA
28Shots on goal33
2.18Expected goals2.78
62Shot attempts60
235v5 shots on goal30
0/2Power play1/2
24Hits23
14Blocked shots18
9Penalty minutes9
15Giveaways20
5Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.18 xGSEA 2.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 3:16 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:07 | 3:16 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:07 | 3:16 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:33 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:33 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:33 | 3:16 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:11 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:33 | 0:33 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:33 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:05 | 0:11 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| C. White | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:57 | 0:11 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17:39 | 1:16 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:44 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:09 | 2:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 19:57 | 0:11 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 11 | 7 | 4 | .636 | 25:58 | Loss |
| A. Georgiev | 22 | 20 | 2 | .909 | 34:02 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 16:15 | 1:13 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:03 | 1:25 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 14:12 | 1:13 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:23 | 1:44 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:39 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 1:21 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 21:00 | 1:52 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:27 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:09 | 0:10 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:48 | 2:15 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 25:24 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:49 | 0:08 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:33 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Stezka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.5, SEA 3.3 | SJS 2, SEA 6 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 25.6, SEA 30.6 | SJS 28, SEA 33 |
| Win chance | SEA 63% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.0 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.9 | 2 | 0.66 | 2 | 17% | 2 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.7 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.6 | 3 | 0.65 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.4 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.4 | 1 | 0.84 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.4 | 1 | 0.78 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.2 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 2.1 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 2.0 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 1.9 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 3 | 0.50 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.4 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.3 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.82 | 3 | 23% | 1 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.1 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 4 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS W. Duehr | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.8 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.7 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS C. White | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.