Game Recap: SJS 6, SEA 1, November 5, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS6

FinalWed, Nov 5, 2025Every game that night

SEA1

SJS beat SEA 6-1, with the chances close: 2.74 expected goals to 2.86. M. Celebrini led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). V. Dunn had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. Y. Askarov stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	2	1	3	6
SEA	1	0	0	1

1st 1:08SJSM. Celebrini0.13 xG
1st 16:30SEAR. Winterton0.11 xG
1st 18:42SJSE. Cardwell0.18 xG
2nd 11:21SJSJ. KlingbergPP0.06 xG
3rd 1:02SJSW. Smith0.04 xG
3rd 3:24SJST. DellandreaSH0.52 xG
3rd 3:54SJST. Toffoli0.19 xG

Team Stats

SJSSEA

23Shots on goal30

2.74Expected goals2.86

44Shot attempts70

155v5 shots on goal17

1/3Power play0/6

18Hits16

20Blocked shots10

12Penalty minutes6

11Giveaways13

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.74 xGSEA 2.86 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS22 on goal, 6 scored

SEA30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	2	3	2	0	2	+2	2	18:34	1:57
W. Smith	C	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	14:43	1:53
T. Toffoli	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+3	2	12:41	1:58
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	0	0	3	+1	0	20:36	1:52
T. Dellandrea	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	2	18:58	1:01
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	16:27	0:57
E. Cardwell	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	2	12:14	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	2	10:30	1:27
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:55	1:21
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:41	0:52
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	13:01	1:26
J. Klingberg	D	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	16:14	1:51
M. Ferraro	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+2	0	18:37	0:24
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	2	16:35	0:37
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	17:50	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	17:18	1:27
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	16:17	1:03
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	15:49	1:24

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	16:39	4:43
R. Winterton	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	11:37	0:07
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-3	0	21:17	6:35
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	21:15	6:36
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	17:44	6:24
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:05	5:20
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	16:07	4:45
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:55	6:06
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	14:53	2:14
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:00	3:16
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	2	11:50	0:26
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	9:27	0:23
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	2	16:51	0:26
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	-2	0	22:47	6:36
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	21:28	5:01
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	17:52	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:57	0:26
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:08	0:36

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	20	15	5	.750	43:14	Loss
M. Murray	3	2	1	.667	16:36

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Smith12:39M. Celebrini16:25T. Toffoli10:43

Line 2A. Gaudette11:35P. Kurashev13:51A. Wennberg12:55

Line 3T. Dellandrea13:27C. Graf10:20B. Goodrow8:21

Line 4J. Skinner9:03E. Cardwell10:48

Pair 1D. Orlov14:44T. Liljegren10:27

Pair 2S. Dickinson15:07S. Mukhamadullin12:00

Pair 3V. Desharnais9:50M. Ferraro11:13

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle14:32M. Beniers13:30E. Tolvanen9:11

Line 2M. Marchment11:45S. Wright11:16R. Winterton9:43

Line 3J. Schwartz10:13C. Stephenson9:19K. Kakko9:17

Line 4J. Nyman8:54T. Kartye10:29B. Catton12:29

Pair 1B. Montour16:17R. Lindgren14:23

Pair 2A. Larsson14:38V. Dunn15:32

Pair 3J. Oleksiak13:45J. Mahura12:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason Marchment SJS First game back in Seattle, his team until Dec 20251 SOG
Old teamAlexander Wennberg SJS Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20241 A, 0 SOG
BirthdayMatty Beniers SEA Turns 23 that day2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, SEA 3.5	SJS 6, SEA 1
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	SJS 25.4, SEA 29.6	SJS 23, SEA 30
Win chance	SEA 63%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.2	2	0.92	3	28%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.9	2	0.67	0	19%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.9	3	0.73	2	31%	1
SEA J. Schwartz	2.5	2	0.72	0	28%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.4	5	0.85	0	17%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	3	0.88	0	28%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.1	2	0.75	0	27%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.1	3	0.77	2	24%	1
SEA M. Marchment	2.0	1	0.68	0	25%	0
SJS J. Skinner	1.9	0	0.51	1	23%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	0	0.56	0	24%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.6	1	0.59	0	21%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.6	2	0.46	0	9%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.6	0	0.42	0	10%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.6	1	0.53	0	18%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	1	0.47	2	9%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.4	2	0.91	0	26%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	2	0.66	1	25%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.3	3	0.41	0	18%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.3	2	0.17	1	9%	1
SJS T. Liljegren	1.3	0	0.30	0	7%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	0	0.50	1	16%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.2	1	0.37	0	11%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.1	2	0.30	0	15%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	2	0.29	0	14%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	1.1	2	0.16	0	5%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	1	0.22	1	5%	0
SJS E. Cardwell	1.0	1	0.24	1	13%	1
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	1	0.30	1	4%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	1.0	2	0.34	1	5%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
SJS C. Graf	0.9	1	0.25	1	11%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.24	0	6%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	2	0.21	1	7%	1
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	1	0.16	0	8%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.10	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.