Game Recap: SJS 1, SEA 4, November 15, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS1

FinalSat, Nov 15, 2025Every game that night

SEA4

SEA beat SJS 4-1, with the chances close: 2.03 expected goals to 2.48. C. Stephenson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Schwartz had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. P. Grubauer stopped 19 of 19.

Team Stats

SJSSEA

26Shots on goal23

2.48Expected goals2.03

74Shot attempts42

205v5 shots on goal19

1/6Power play0/2

19Hits13

8Blocked shots25

4Penalty minutes12

14Giveaways11

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 2.48 xGSEA 2.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS26 on goal, 1 scored

SEA22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Wennberg	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	20:41	6:59
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-3	0	20:28	7:51
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:26	7:24
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-3	0	19:04	7:09
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:31	1:44
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	15:17	2:13
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	14:55	0:27
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	14:41	1:27
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	14:23	2:31
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:25	0:04
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:47	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:00	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	21:15	7:30
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:24	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:45	0:13
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	17:50	2:03
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:35	0:24
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	15:26	0:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	22	19	3	.864	59:07	Loss
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	3	3	1	0	2	+3	0	18:07	2:16
J. Schwartz	LW	2	0	2	6	2	1	+3	0	16:01	0:46
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	20:31	2:01
M. Marchment	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:50	1:01
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	2	12:10	2:31
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	16:44	2:33
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	16:44	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	15:01	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	2	14:23	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	9:57	0:29
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:21	0:31
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:34	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	2	2	1	1	2	+2	0	18:45	0:00
A. Larsson	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	+2	0	23:14	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	2	21:04	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	18:44	2:33
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	17:48	0:29
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	17:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Murray	7	6	1	.857	19:42
P. Grubauer	19	19	0	1.000	40:18	Win

Lines at 5-on-5

SJS

Line 1W. Eklund12:54C. Graf12:47A. Wennberg11:53

Line 2A. Gaudette13:04T. Dellandrea12:21T. Toffoli11:23

Line 3P. Kurashev12:06W. Smith11:26M. Celebrini11:51

Line 4B. Goodrow9:16Z. Ostapchuk9:47R. Reaves9:00

Pair 1M. Ferraro17:57S. Mukhamadullin17:22

Pair 2J. Klingberg13:39D. Orlov15:12

Pair 3N. Leddy14:13V. Desharnais13:34

SEA

Line 1M. Marchment15:27M. Beniers15:18J. Eberle13:46

Line 2J. Schwartz10:56C. Stephenson11:38R. Winterton12:58

Line 3F. Gaudreau12:34T. Kartye10:37J. Nyman6:34

Line 4S. Wright8:50B. Catton9:28E. Tolvanen9:39

Pair 1A. Larsson16:14V. Dunn15:42

Pair 2R. Lindgren15:09B. Montour16:26

Pair 3J. Oleksiak15:09R. Evans13:20

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMason Marchment SJS First game back in Seattle, his team until Dec 20251 A, 2 SOG
Old teamAlexander Wennberg SJS Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20241 G, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.7, SEA 3.5	SJS 1, SEA 4
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	SJS 24.6, SEA 30.0	SJS 26, SEA 23
Win chance	SEA 64%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	2.9	1	0.90	1	28%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.7	1	0.61	0	18%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.6	0	0.89	0	30%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.4	6	0.69	2	28%	2
SJS T. Toffoli	2.4	2	0.65	0	28%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.4	1	0.81	0	17%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.1	2	0.69	1	26%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.1	1	0.79	1	28%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	2	0.68	1	20%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.9	5	0.72	0	24%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	3	0.58	1	24%	1
SJS P. Kurashev	1.6	0	0.51	0	17%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	1	0.45	0	8%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.5	1	0.47	0	10%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	1	0.37	1	9%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.4	0	0.59	0	23%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.4	1	0.84	3	24%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.3	1	0.33	0	17%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.2	3	0.34	0	17%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.2	1	0.22	0	11%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	2	0.36	0	16%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.1	1	0.49	1	16%	1
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.30	0	14%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.1	3	0.25	0	9%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.0	1	0.32	0	13%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	2	0.22	0	5%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	1	0.30	1	5%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.9	0	0.34	0	7%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	0	0.28	0	4%	0
SEA B. Catton	0.9	1	0.27	0	10%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	1	0.23	2	6%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.6	1	0.09	0	6%	0
SJS N. Leddy	0.5	1	0.20	0	3%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.5	1	0.11	0	1%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.5	1	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.