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Game Recap
SJS2
STL3
STL beat SJS 3-2 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.20 expected goals to 1.89. A. Wennberg led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Walman had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Binnington stopped 22 of 24.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| STL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 0:11STLN. Walker0.19 xG
- 1st 8:23SJSA. WennbergPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 11:47STLJ. Kyrou0.08 xG
- 3rd 19:51SJSA. Wennberg0.13 xG
Team Stats
SJSSTL
24Shots on goal31
1.89Expected goals2.20
59Shot attempts54
175v5 shots on goal30
1/2Power play0/1
23Hits22
16Blocked shots20
2Penalty minutes4
22Giveaways16
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 1.89 xGSTL 2.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:48 | 2:21 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:09 | 2:07 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 2:21 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:38 | 1:13 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:12 | 2:10 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:14 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:38 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 12:03 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| G. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 1:11 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 0:08 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 62:21 | OT loss |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:18 | 1:07 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 1:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:49 | 0:00 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:26 | 1:03 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:30 | 0:51 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 1:00 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:02 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:58 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:30 | 0:57 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:21 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 30:02 | 0:02 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:13 | 1:12 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:48 |
| C. Schueneman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 24 | 22 | 2 | .917 | 65:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.5, STL 3.8 | SJS 2, STL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 26.3, STL 32.6 | SJS 24, STL 31 |
| Win chance | STL 70% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 3.1 | 3 | 1.04 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 2.8 | 3 | 0.52 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.7 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.5 | 3 | 0.66 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.3 | 3 | 1.01 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 2.2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.2 | 0 | 0.75 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.1 | 4 | 1.22 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.1 | 5 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.9 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.6 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.2 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL C. Schueneman | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.2 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.8 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.8 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS G. Smith | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 0.7 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.