SJS beat STL 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 2.09 expected goals to 2.89. SJS outshot STL 31 to 20. M. Celebrini led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Celebrini had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. A. Georgiev stopped 17 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 1:21SJST. Toffoli0.22 xG
- 1st 10:26STLJ. Neighbours0.12 xG
- 2nd 5:43SJSM. Celebrini0.03 xG
- 2nd 19:53SJSM. CelebriniPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 5:34STLB. Schenn0.54 xG
- 3rd 6:01SJSJ. Walman0.16 xG
- 3rd 7:57STLJ. Kyrou0.13 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 2.09 xGSTL 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:18 | 2:51 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 2:52 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:10 | 2:52 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:56 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:38 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:47 | 2:54 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 15:46 | 0:56 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11:05 | 0:54 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 7 | 8:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 23:52 | 2:58 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:50 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:19 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 20 | 17 | 3 | .850 | 60:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:55 | 2:30 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:00 | 3:19 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:45 | 2:49 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:09 | 2:32 |
| B. Schenn | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:56 | 1:12 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:20 | 1:00 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 4 | 15:58 | 1:30 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:44 | 0:35 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:24 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:43 | 0:09 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 27:02 | 2:54 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:33 | 1:06 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 58:59 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.7, STL 3.7 | SJS 4, STL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 27.0, STL 32.4 | SJS 31, STL 20 |
| Win chance | STL 66% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 3.0 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.0 | 6 | 0.73 | 3 | 26% | 2 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.7 | 4 | 0.64 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.5 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.3 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.2 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 2.2 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.1 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.1 | 1 | 1.20 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.1 | 4 | 0.42 | 2 | 13% | 1 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 2.1 | 2 | 0.60 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.0 | 4 | 0.70 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.6 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.24 | 3 | 11% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.