VAN beat SJS 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 5.00 expected goals to 1.87. VAN outshot SJS 37 to 16. P. Suter had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. N. Tolopilo stopped 15 of 16.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| VAN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 4:20SJSM. CelebriniPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 9:03VANL. Karlsson0.16 xG
- OT 4:42VANJ. DeBrusk0.31 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 1.87 xGVAN 5.00 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:38 | 2:46 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:29 | 2:46 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:13 | 1:56 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:27 | 1:38 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:13 | 3:05 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:19 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 3:03 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:11 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:30 | 0:16 |
| D. Gushchin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 2:01 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 10:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Lund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:06 | 1:34 |
| L. Cagnoni | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 17:44 | 2:58 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 26:06 | 1:42 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:26 | 0:03 |
| L. Carlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:25 | 0:08 |
| J. Schuldt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:22 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:27 | 0:17 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 37 | 35 | 2 | .946 | 64:35 | OT loss |
| G. Romanov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Boeser | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:55 | 6:53 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 5:44 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:13 | 0:00 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:48 | 2:55 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 | 6:32 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 5:23 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 2:34 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 2:05 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 1:40 |
| D. Joshua | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 | 0:13 |
| T. Mueller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| Q. Hughes | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 30:34 | 8:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:56 | 5:06 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:23 | 0:49 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 17:32 | 2:06 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 0:00 |
| K. Kudryavtsev | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Tolopilo | 16 | 15 | 1 | .938 | 64:24 | Win |
| K. Lankinen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 2.6, VAN 4.0 | SJS 1, VAN 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 24.9, VAN 29.6 | SJS 16, VAN 37 |
| Win chance | VAN 70% | VAN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.0 | 3 | 0.78 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.9 | 2 | 0.68 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN Q. Hughes | 2.8 | 5 | 1.43 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.4 | 1 | 0.82 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.4 | 3 | 0.76 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| VAN B. Boeser | 2.4 | 4 | 0.98 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| VAN P. Suter | 2.3 | 6 | 0.80 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| VAN K. Sherwood | 2.0 | 1 | 0.67 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.0 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.8 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.7 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.7 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.5 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.5 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.4 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.3 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS D. Gushchin | 1.3 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN D. Joshua | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS C. Lund | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS L. Cagnoni | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS N. Gregor | 1.1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS J. Schuldt | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.