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Game Recap
SJS5
VAN2
SJS beat VAN 5-2, with the chances close: 3.36 expected goals to 2.97. SJS outshot VAN 33 to 25. M. Celebrini led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Lekkerimäki had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. Y. Askarov stopped 23 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| VAN | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 1:15VANT. Willander0.03 xG
- 1st 1:51SJSM. Celebrini0.10 xG
- 1st 4:43SJSA. Gaudette0.20 xG
- 1st 5:55SJST. Toffoli0.23 xG
- 2nd 9:07SJSW. SmithPP0.19 xG
- 3rd 0:28SJSJ. KlingbergPP0.06 xG
- 3rd 9:15VANF. HronekPP0.12 xG
Team Stats
SJSVAN
33Shots on goal25
3.36Expected goals2.97
67Shot attempts46
245v5 shots on goal16
2/4Power play1/4
17Hits30
12Blocked shots18
15Penalty minutes15
16Giveaways14
2Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SJS 3.36 xGVAN 2.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:38 | 4:11 |
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:30 | 4:15 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:06 | 4:13 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 2:39 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:55 | 2:36 |
| A. Gaudette | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| P. Regenda | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:58 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:37 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:17 | 1:01 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| R. Reaves | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:00 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:40 | 4:12 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:13 | 0:21 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 21:07 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 17:21 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:25 | 1:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Askarov | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 59:52 | Win |
| A. Nedeljkovic | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
VAN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Pettersson | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 4:22 |
| J. DeBrusk | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:18 | 4:18 |
| L. Karlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 4:16 |
| J. Lekkerimäki | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:05 | 3:43 |
| T. Blueger | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:36 | 0:16 |
| C. Garland | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:08 | 1:21 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:59 |
| D. O'Connor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| L. Ohgren | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:33 | 1:14 |
| E. Kane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12:24 | 1:40 |
| A. Räty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| N. Hoglander | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:00 |
| F. Hronek | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:39 | 4:17 |
| T. Willander | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:35 | 1:08 |
| M. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 2 | 20:54 | 0:19 |
| T. Myers | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:12 |
| E. Pettersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:05 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Lankinen | 6 | 3 | 3 | .500 | 5:55 | Loss |
| N. Tolopilo | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 54:05 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SJS
Line 1W. Smith12:37M. Celebrini12:43C. Graf11:57
Line 2M. Misa12:22W. Eklund12:18A. Gaudette11:07
Line 3A. Wennberg12:13P. Regenda12:46T. Toffoli11:13
Line 4R. Reaves11:21B. Goodrow10:31Z. Ostapchuk9:43
Pair 1S. Dickinson17:19V. Desharnais15:47
Pair 2D. Orlov15:23J. Klingberg14:52
Pair 3M. Ferraro15:32T. Liljegren15:26
VAN
Line 1J. DeBrusk11:44E. Pettersson11:06L. Karlsson12:01
Line 2F. Chytil12:33J. Lekkerimäki12:22N. Hoglander11:05
Line 3T. Blueger12:46L. Ohgren11:24C. Garland11:31
Line 4E. Kane10:44A. Räty11:00D. O'Connor12:24
Pair 1T. Myers12:32E. Pettersson16:46
Pair 2F. Hronek16:21V. Mancini17:26
Pair 3M. Pettersson17:20T. Willander14:05
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJS 3.1, VAN 3.6 | SJS 5, VAN 2 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | SJS 26.4, VAN 29.4 | SJS 33, VAN 25 |
| Win chance | VAN 57% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.6 | 4 | 1.33 | 4 | 34% | 1 |
| VAN F. Chytil | 2.6 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| VAN J. DeBrusk | 2.5 | 2 | 0.64 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| VAN E. Kane | 2.5 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.4 | 5 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.2 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.2 | 1 | 0.83 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| VAN C. Garland | 2.0 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 2.0 | 0 | 0.91 | 2 | 31% | 0 |
| SJS P. Regenda | 1.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| VAN L. Karlsson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| VAN D. O'Connor | 1.8 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| VAN L. Ohgren | 1.8 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS J. Klingberg | 1.6 | 4 | 0.52 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| VAN F. Hronek | 1.5 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| VAN T. Blueger | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN A. Räty | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| VAN T. Myers | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.3 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.65 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS A. Gaudette | 1.2 | 2 | 0.33 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| VAN N. Hoglander | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN J. Lekkerimäki | 1.1 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| VAN T. Willander | 1.0 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.0 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| VAN M. Pettersson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 0.9 | 2 | 0.18 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| VAN V. Mancini | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| VAN E. Pettersson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SJS R. Reaves | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.