Game Recap: SJS 3, WPG 8, October 18, 2024

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Game Recap

SJS3

FinalFri, Oct 18, 2024Every game that night

WPG8

WPG beat SJS 8-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.25 expected goals to 1.14. WPG outshot SJS 36 to 22. C. Perfetti led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). J. Walman had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. Hellebuyck stopped 19 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SJS	1	1	1	3
WPG	4	1	3	8

1st 1:59WPGJ. Morrissey0.01 xG
1st 9:25WPGN. EhlersPP0.14 xG
1st 11:43SJST. ToffoliPP0.11 xG
1st 13:31WPGN. Ehlers0.06 xG
1st 18:48WPGN. PionkPP0.03 xG
2nd 1:46WPGK. Connor0.08 xG
2nd 10:28SJSL. Kunin0.17 xG
3rd 9:50WPGC. PerfettiPP0.16 xG
3rd 10:09SJSF. Zetterlund0.14 xG
3rd 12:55WPGC. PerfettiPP0.10 xG
3rd 19:27WPGV. Namestnikov0.20 xG

Team Stats

SJSWPG

22Shots on goal36

1.14Expected goals4.25

43Shot attempts72

175v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play4/7

25Hits20

21Blocked shots10

12Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways10

6Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.14 xGWPG 4.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS20 on goal, 3 scored

WPG36 on goal, 8 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Granlund	C	0	2	2	0	1	2	-1	2	22:05	2:49
T. Toffoli	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	-1	0	16:04	2:47
L. Kunin	C	1	0	1	2	1	4	-1	2	15:01	0:22
F. Zetterlund	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	13:01	0:27
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	10:19	0:00
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	19:01	2:44
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:18	0:24
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	15:58	0:00
D. Gushchin	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:18	2:44
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:41	0:00
K. Kostin	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:00	0:20
G. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	7:59	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	2	20:25	2:44
C. Ceci	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	20:13	0:04
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:47	0:27
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	19:37	0:00
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	2	19:33	0:03
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	2	16:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	18	13	5	.722	21:46	Loss
V. Vanecek	18	15	3	.833	38:14

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Namestnikov	C	1	3	4	1	0	0	+3	0	13:29	4:34
C. Perfetti	C	2	2	4	5	0	0	+4	0	13:27	4:49
N. Ehlers	LW	2	1	3	5	1	0	+3	0	15:54	7:12
G. Vilardi	C	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	21:23	7:21
A. Iafallo	LW	0	2	2	1	0	2	-1	0	13:39	4:17
M. Scheifele	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	21:32	7:27
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	21:16	7:16
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	17:28	4:32
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	14:23	0:00
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:36	0:00
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	12:11	0:00
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	10:43	0:00
N. Pionk	D	1	3	4	2	1	0	+2	0	19:20	4:22
J. Morrissey	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	+1	2	26:04	7:29
C. Miller	D	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	12:00	0:03
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	20:12	0:00
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	16:06	0:05
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	22	19	3	.864	59:16	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEric Comrie SJS First game back in Winnipeg, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0
Old teamMario Ferraro WPG First game against SJS since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 SOG
Old teamTyler Toffoli SJS Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20241 G, 1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.2, WPG 4.1	SJS 3, WPG 8
Total goals	6.3	11
Shots on goal	SJS 25.5, WPG 35.2	SJS 22, WPG 36
Win chance	WPG 77%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.5	4	1.19	1	43%	1
WPG N. Ehlers	2.8	5	0.91	3	29%	2
WPG J. Morrissey	2.6	3	1.07	1	17%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	2	0.56	2	25%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.4	0	0.92	2	36%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.4	2	1.23	1	40%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.2	2	0.43	1	19%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.0	2	0.56	0	25%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.0	0	0.66	2	14%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	1.9	5	0.59	4	21%	2
WPG N. Pionk	1.8	2	0.54	4	8%	1
SJS J. Walman	1.8	5	0.26	1	11%	0
SJS D. Gushchin	1.7	1	0.37	0	14%	0
WPG M. Appleton	1.6	0	0.49	0	16%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.5	2	0.29	1	7%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.5	2	0.52	0	20%	0
WPG H. Fleury	1.4	1	0.17	0	5%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.3	1	0.32	0	5%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.3	2	0.24	1	13%	1
WPG M. Barron	1.3	2	0.30	0	13%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.2	1	0.45	0	6%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.2	1	0.38	2	15%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.2	1	0.47	4	16%	1
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.1	0	0.16	1	10%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.1	1	0.22	1	4%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	1	0.17	0	3%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.0	0	0.19	0	8%	0
SJS K. Kostin	1.0	1	0.31	0	16%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.0	0	0.29	0	11%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	1	0.22	0	5%	0
WPG R. Kupari	0.9	2	0.22	0	8%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	1	0.23	0	10%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.9	1	0.18	0	9%	0
SJS G. Smith	0.9	0	0.12	0	5%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.7	3	0.16	0	4%	0
SJS M. Benning	0.6	1	0.15	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.