Game Recap: SJS 1, WPG 2 (OT), February 24, 2025

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Game Recap

SJS1

Final/OTMon, Feb 24, 2025Every game that night

WPG2

WPG beat SJS 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.99 expected goals to 1.69. WPG outshot SJS 35 to 18. V. Namestnikov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. C. Hellebuyck stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SJS	1	0	0	0	1
WPG	0	0	1	1	2

1st 15:07SJSW. EklundPP0.17 xG
3rd 19:34WPGJ. Morrissey0.03 xG
OT 1:33WPGM. Scheifele0.24 xG

Team Stats

SJSWPG

18Shots on goal35

1.69Expected goals2.99

36Shot attempts76

135v5 shots on goal27

1/3Power play0/2

22Hits19

21Blocked shots9

6Penalty minutes8

7Giveaways7

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SJS 1.69 xGWPG 2.99 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SJS16 on goal, 1 scored

WPG34 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	0	1	1	3	0	2	0	2	20:17	2:37
W. Eklund	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:33	2:35
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:22	2:36
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:31	1:46
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	0	18:27	2:34
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:34	1:59
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	15:38	0:15
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:14	1:59
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	12:58	1:42
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:49	0:02
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	11:20	0:02
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	8:48	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	4	4	-2	0	24:19	0:17
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	23:52	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	22:14	2:11
M. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	17:03	0:00
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:13	0:06
J. Thompson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	13:32	1:43

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
V. Vanecek	35	33	2	.943	61:28	OT loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	2	25:27	2:33
M. Scheifele	C	1	0	1	1	4	1	+2	0	24:25	2:34
N. Ehlers	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	2	17:04	2:34
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	19:51	2:35
V. Namestnikov	C	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	16:59	1:26
C. Perfetti	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:20	1:25
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	2	13:26	0:00
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:08	1:27
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:48	0:00
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:52	1:03
R. Kupari	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:09	0:00
D. Gustafsson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5:34	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	29:35	2:25
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	25:53	0:00
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	0	21:55	1:35
D. Samberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:41	0:00
L. Stanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:57	0:00
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	10:08	0:23

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	18	17	1	.944	60:24	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEric Comrie SJS First game back in Winnipeg, his team until Apr 20260 saves on 0
Old teamMario Ferraro WPG First game against SJS since he left (his team until Apr 2026)0 SOG
Old teamTyler Toffoli SJS Faces WPG, his team until Apr 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SJS 2.1, WPG 3.8	SJS 1, WPG 2
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	SJS 24.7, WPG 32.0	SJS 18, WPG 35
Win chance	WPG 76%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.7	4	1.33	1	44%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.2	3	0.67	1	24%	0
WPG N. Ehlers	3.0	1	1.09	1	33%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	0	0.55	0	25%	0
SJS J. Walman	2.4	3	0.38	0	11%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.4	1	1.25	1	41%	1
WPG J. Morrissey	2.4	4	0.97	1	16%	1
WPG N. Niederreiter	2.2	2	0.61	0	27%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	3	0.96	0	36%	0
WPG N. Pionk	2.1	4	0.69	0	11%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.1	2	0.74	0	23%	0
SJS F. Zetterlund	1.9	1	0.36	0	16%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.8	1	0.43	0	7%	0
SJS W. Eklund	1.8	2	0.54	1	16%	1
WPG M. Appleton	1.7	1	0.45	0	16%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.6	5	0.68	0	21%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.5	3	0.54	0	20%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.5	0	0.41	1	15%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.4	1	0.25	0	14%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.4	0	0.39	0	16%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.4	0	0.18	0	10%	0
SJS J. Thompson	1.3	1	0.18	0	5%	0
WPG C. Miller	1.3	0	0.28	0	7%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	0	0.19	0	5%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.2	1	0.27	0	5%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.2	0	0.41	0	6%	0
WPG R. Kupari	1.2	2	0.26	0	11%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.1	2	0.24	0	11%	0
SJS M. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.16	0	4%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.0	1	0.31	0	11%	0
WPG D. Gustafsson	0.9	1	0.24	0	8%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.19	0	10%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	0	0.14	0	4%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.9	2	0.16	0	3%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.8	2	0.18	0	8%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.8	0	0.14	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.