Game Recap: STL 3, BOS 2 (OT), November 16, 2024

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Game Recap

STL3

Final/OTSat, Nov 16, 2024Every game that night

BOS2

STL beat BOS 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.62 expected goals to 2.03. STL outshot BOS 31 to 18. T. Frederic led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Frederic had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Binnington stopped 16 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
STL	1	0	1	1	3
BOS	2	0	0	0	2

1st 6:25STLR. Faksa0.23 xG
1st 9:34BOST. Frederic0.33 xG
1st 12:12BOST. Frederic0.03 xG
3rd 9:18STLN. Walker0.09 xG
OT 2:53STLB. Schenn0.06 xG

Team Stats

STLBOS

31Shots on goal18

2.62Expected goals2.03

63Shot attempts41

285v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play0/1

27Hits18

11Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways14

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.62 xGBOS 2.03 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL31 on goal, 3 scored

BOS17 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	2	2	1	3	0	+1	0	13:51	0:11
R. Faksa	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	13:39	0:19
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	5	2	2	+1	0	21:33	2:19
N. Walker	LW	1	0	1	2	4	1	+1	0	12:09	0:09
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:56	2:12
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	4	2	2	-1	0	19:03	1:34
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:47	1:04
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	18:04	0:45
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	16:31	2:07
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	2	10:56	1:33
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:16	1:03
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:58	0:36
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	26:20	0:31
S. Perunovich	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	0	18:50	1:41
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	25:24	0:21
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	22:33	2:16
C. Schueneman	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:49	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	18	16	2	.889	62:53	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Frederic	C	2	0	2	5	2	0	+1	2	16:37	0:00
G. Merkulov	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	13:11	0:39
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	21:12	1:20
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:28	1:21
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	18:19	1:22
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:57	1:24
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:42	0:39
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:39	0:38
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	16:24	0:36
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	10:58	0:00
R. Tufte	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	7:46	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	5:18	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	2	25:07	1:21
M. Lohrei	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	+2	0	20:29	0:40
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	21:26	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	20:22	0:00
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	18:20	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	15:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	31	28	3	.903	62:53	OT loss
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrandon Carlo STL Faces BOS, his team until Mar 20250 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.7, BOS 3.1	STL 3, BOS 2
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	STL 27.0, BOS 29.5	STL 31, BOS 18
Win chance	BOS 57%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.4	4	1.25	0	45%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	3	0.74	0	27%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	0	0.86	0	29%	0
STL B. Schenn	2.1	5	0.60	1	20%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	2	0.72	0	25%	0
BOS P. Zacha	2.0	0	0.71	0	23%	0
STL J. Faulk	2.0	3	0.46	0	9%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	0	0.65	0	24%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.9	2	0.44	0	23%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.8	2	0.35	1	9%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.8	1	0.59	1	12%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.7	2	0.44	0	21%	0
STL D. Holloway	1.7	4	0.35	0	16%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.6	1	0.56	0	21%	0
STL B. Saad	1.6	0	0.45	0	20%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.6	1	0.46	0	18%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	1	0.34	0	10%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.4	5	0.40	2	17%	2
STL A. Toropchenko	1.4	1	0.25	2	13%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.4	0	0.34	0	14%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	0	0.33	0	15%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	0	0.31	0	10%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.2	1	0.30	0	11%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.1	0	0.22	0	6%	0
STL R. Suter	1.1	1	0.27	0	5%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	1	0.35	1	8%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	2	0.27	1	12%	1
STL R. Faksa	1.1	3	0.23	2	10%	1
STL C. Schueneman	1.0	0	0.18	0	4%	0
BOS J. Oesterle	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	0	0.27	0	10%	0
BOS R. Tufte	0.8	0	0.21	0	11%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.7	0	0.17	0	2%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	0	0.14	0	2%	0
STL S. Perunovich	0.6	2	0.26	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.