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Game Recap
STL2
BOS5
BOS beat STL 5-2, with the chances close: 2.32 expected goals to 2.75. STL outshot BOS 39 to 27. M. Geekie led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). P. Broberg had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Korpisalo stopped 37 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| BOS | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
- 1st 6:30BOSA. Steeves0.19 xG
- 1st 11:25BOSM. Geekie0.18 xG
- 2nd 1:59STLP. Buchnevich0.11 xG
- 2nd 6:04BOSV. Arvidsson0.01 xG
- 2nd 12:26BOSP. Zacha0.10 xG
- 2nd 19:59BOSP. ZachaPP0.28 xG
- 3rd 9:07STLP. Suter0.32 xG
Team Stats
STLBOS
39Shots on goal27
2.75Expected goals2.32
70Shot attempts44
395v5 shots on goal23
0/2Power play1/2
31Hits19
7Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes4
17Giveaways19
3Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.75 xGBOS 2.32 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:21 | 1:28 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:46 | 1:24 |
| P. Suter | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:37 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:28 | 1:12 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:48 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 2:18 |
| A. Kaskimaki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:07 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:55 | 0:32 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 1:14 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:53 | 1:05 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 12:01 | 1:15 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:54 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:13 | 1:16 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:41 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:51 | 1:11 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:48 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:19 | 0:50 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 27 | 22 | 5 | .815 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BOS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Geekie | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:42 | 1:23 |
| E. Lindholm | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 15:37 | 1:10 |
| A. Steeves | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:54 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:47 | 1:04 |
| P. Zacha | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:44 | 1:23 |
| F. Minten | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:10 |
| M. Kastelic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Kuraly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:46 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:09 | 0:04 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:01 | 1:10 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:39 |
| M. Lohrei | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:48 |
| H. Lindholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:01 | 1:22 |
| A. Peeke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:38 | 0:00 |
| N. Zadorov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:05 |
| J. Aspirot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:33 | 0:12 |
| V. Soderstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Korpisalo | 39 | 37 | 2 | .949 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Swayman | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1P. Buchnevich13:16D. Dvorsky14:16B. Schenn16:48
Line 2J. Kyrou14:22D. Holloway14:24P. Suter13:40
Line 3R. Thomas13:14J. Neighbours14:01A. Kaskimaki13:42
Line 4N. Bjugstad11:13O. Sundqvist10:24M. Joseph12:36
Pair 2C. Fowler18:47L. Mailloux17:29
Pair 3C. Parayko17:27P. Broberg18:30
BOS
Line 1M. Geekie15:19A. Steeves14:31E. Lindholm14:27
Line 2T. Jeannot13:07F. Minten13:56M. Kastelic13:48
Line 3S. Kuraly13:13M. Khusnutdinov13:21M. Eyssimont12:15
Line 4P. Zacha12:21C. Mittelstadt12:51V. Arvidsson12:43
Pair 1H. Lindholm20:44A. Peeke20:43
Pair 2N. Zadorov20:00J. Aspirot19:47
Pair 3V. Soderstrom13:23M. Lohrei13:41
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.9, BOS 2.9 | STL 2, BOS 5 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.5, BOS 26.5 | STL 39, BOS 27 |
| Win chance | STL 50% | BOS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.6 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| BOS V. Arvidsson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.61 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| BOS M. Geekie | 2.2 | 3 | 0.79 | 3 | 31% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.2 | 3 | 0.63 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS M. Eyssimont | 2.1 | 5 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| BOS H. Lindholm | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.7 | 3 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.7 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| BOS E. Lindholm | 1.7 | 0 | 0.56 | 3 | 21% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.6 | 5 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| BOS P. Zacha | 1.5 | 3 | 0.63 | 2 | 20% | 2 |
| BOS A. Steeves | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 2 | 19% | 1 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS M. Kastelic | 1.4 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS S. Kuraly | 1.4 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BOS N. Zadorov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 5 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| BOS F. Minten | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.3 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| BOS C. Mittelstadt | 1.3 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS A. Peeke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| BOS T. Jeannot | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BOS J. Aspirot | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BOS V. Soderstrom | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| BOS M. Lohrei | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 6% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 0.9 | 3 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BOS M. Khusnutdinov | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.7 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.