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Game Recap
STL3
BUF4
BUF beat STL 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.06 expected goals to 2.14. B. Saad led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). Z. Benson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. D. Levi stopped 24 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| BUF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Team Stats
STLBUF
27Shots on goal33
2.14Expected goals2.06
52Shot attempts63
255v5 shots on goal31
0/1Power play1/3
28Hits26
19Blocked shots10
6Penalty minutes2
12Giveaways7
5Takeaways10
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.14 xGBUF 2.06 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:20 | 1:10 |
| B. Saad | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:50 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:10 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:24 | 1:10 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:44 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:10 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:04 | 0:11 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:06 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:52 | 0:39 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:57 | 0:38 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 30:37 | 0:12 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 33:06 | 0:01 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:02 | 1:10 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 13:44 | 0:49 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 33 | 29 | 4 | .879 | 61:33 | OT loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Tuch | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:26 | 3:41 |
| R. McLeod | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:04 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:04 | 3:16 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:24 | 3:18 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:21 | 1:44 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:08 | 2:15 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:02 | 2:12 |
| J. Greenway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 0:00 |
| S. Lafferty | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:24 | 2:13 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 27:35 | 1:56 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 27:31 | 3:47 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:00 | 1:46 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| D. Gilbert | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.0, BUF 3.4 | STL 3, BUF 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.6, BUF 31.3 | STL 27, BUF 33 |
| Win chance | BUF 55% | BUF won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.8 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.8 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.7 | 4 | 0.74 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.7 | 4 | 0.91 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.6 | 4 | 0.65 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.2 | 2 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.1 | 4 | 0.65 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 4 | 0.80 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.8 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF J. Greenway | 1.7 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.7 | 0 | 0.37 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.5 | 4 | 0.46 | 2 | 21% | 2 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.4 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.4 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.4 | 2 | 0.55 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.3 | 4 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| STL K. Kapanen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| BUF S. Lafferty | 0.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.6 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 2 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| BUF D. Gilbert | 0.5 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.