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Game Recap
STL1
CAR4
CAR beat STL 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.35 expected goals to 2.53. M. Necas led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). D. Holloway had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. P. Kochetkov stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| CAR | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 6:05STLJ. Neighbours0.21 xG
- 1st 19:35CARA. SvechnikovPP0.19 xG
- 2nd 0:17CARE. Robinson0.16 xG
- 2nd 12:26CARM. Necas0.22 xG
- 3rd 16:47CARM. Necas0.08 xG
Team Stats
STLCAR
30Shots on goal24
2.53Expected goals3.35
44Shot attempts70
305v5 shots on goal19
0/1Power play1/3
26Hits16
17Blocked shots6
6Penalty minutes2
17Giveaways15
9Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.53 xGCAR 3.35 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 1:53 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:26 | 2:00 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 1:59 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:07 | 1:57 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:01 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:03 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 11:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:07 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 24:28 | 0:07 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:23 | 0:06 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:03 | 1:54 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 0:00 |
| C. Schueneman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 24 | 20 | 4 | .833 | 60:00 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Necas | C | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:20 | 3:45 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:07 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 3:44 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:38 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:31 | 3:42 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:24 | 3:43 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:39 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:40 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:08 | 0:07 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:57 | 0:07 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:11 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 0:06 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:33 | 3:42 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:45 | 0:07 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:03 | 0:44 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:07 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:39 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:07 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 59:58 | Win |
| S. Martin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.5, CAR 3.7 | STL 1, CAR 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 23.6, CAR 35.7 | STL 30, CAR 24 |
| Win chance | CAR 68% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 3.0 | 5 | 0.92 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CAR M. Necas | 2.9 | 3 | 0.88 | 4 | 28% | 2 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.7 | 0 | 1.02 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.4 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 2.0 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 2.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.68 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.9 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Drury | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.7 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.7 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 3 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.6 | 7 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 3 | 0.41 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 3 | 15% | 1 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.3 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.1 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CAR T. Jost | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.9 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL C. Schueneman | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.7 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.5 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.