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Game Recap
STL2
CBJ3
CBJ beat STL 3-2, with the chances close: 3.68 expected goals to 3.07. Z. Werenski led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Bjugstad had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Greaves stopped 37 of 39.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CBJ | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 3:37STLJ. Faulk0.07 xG
- 1st 4:38CBJC. Coyle0.09 xG
- 2nd 11:55CBJZ. Werenski0.06 xG
- 3rd 5:07CBJS. MonahanPP0.22 xG
- 3rd 9:48STLN. Bjugstad0.22 xG
Team Stats
STLCBJ
39Shots on goal35
3.07Expected goals3.68
67Shot attempts59
325v5 shots on goal28
0/2Power play1/3
21Hits14
13Blocked shots13
11Penalty minutes9
14Giveaways15
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.07 xGCBJ 3.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:28 | 2:34 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:58 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:16 | 0:00 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 2:35 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 1:26 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:47 | 2:30 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:38 | 1:29 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:16 | 1:29 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 2:31 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:54 | 2:31 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:05 | 0:27 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:17 | 1:30 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:20 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 57:04 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CBJ Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Monahan | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:17 | 2:30 |
| K. Marchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:59 | 2:43 |
| C. Coyle | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:53 |
| C. Sillinger | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| B. Jenner | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:11 | 1:54 |
| A. Fantilli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:48 | 1:57 |
| D. Voronkov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:31 | 2:33 |
| K. Johnson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:46 | 2:29 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 0:00 |
| M. Olivier | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 5 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| E. Chinakhov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| Z. Werenski | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:48 | 3:41 |
| I. Provorov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 23:46 | 0:44 |
| D. Mateychuk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 20:17 | 0:00 |
| D. Severson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:44 | 1:41 |
| D. Fabbro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Christiansen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:15 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Greaves | 39 | 37 | 2 | .949 | 59:50 | Win |
| E. Merzlikins | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1D. Holloway14:38O. Sundqvist11:56P. Suter13:16
Line 2N. Bjugstad13:23N. Walker11:15A. Toropchenko10:35
Line 3B. Schenn12:08J. Snuggerud13:16P. Buchnevich11:48
Line 4M. Joseph10:55D. Dvorsky12:22J. Kyrou9:49
Pair 1P. Broberg20:29C. Parayko18:42
CBJ
Line 1K. Marchenko14:28S. Monahan14:10D. Voronkov11:21
Line 2B. Jenner13:38A. Fantilli12:51K. Johnson11:17
Line 3C. Coyle10:50C. Sillinger13:15M. Olivier10:06
Line 4M. Wood11:49I. Lundestrom11:19E. Chinakhov9:16
Pair 1D. Severson18:27I. Provorov19:46
Pair 2Z. Werenski18:50D. Mateychuk17:38
Pair 3D. Fabbro13:09J. Christiansen10:15
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.3, CBJ 3.2 | STL 2, CBJ 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 27.9, CBJ 28.0 | STL 39, CBJ 35 |
| Win chance | STL 52% | CBJ won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ Z. Werenski | 3.2 | 4 | 0.81 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 3.0 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.6 | 6 | 0.79 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Marchenko | 2.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.2 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CBJ A. Fantilli | 2.1 | 5 | 0.63 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CBJ B. Jenner | 2.1 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CBJ S. Monahan | 2.0 | 1 | 0.75 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 1.9 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Voronkov | 1.9 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.9 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.8 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Sillinger | 1.7 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| CBJ K. Johnson | 1.7 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CBJ M. Wood | 1.6 | 4 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.6 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ E. Chinakhov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.5 | 4 | 0.38 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 7 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CBJ M. Olivier | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Provorov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.38 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ C. Coyle | 1.3 | 3 | 0.48 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.2 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Severson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Mateychuk | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CBJ D. Fabbro | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CBJ J. Christiansen | 0.7 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CBJ I. Lundestrom | 0.7 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.