Game Recap: STL 4, CGY 3 (OT), December 5, 2024

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Game Recap

STL4

Final/OTThu, Dec 5, 2024Every game that night

CGY3

STL beat CGY 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.25 expected goals to 3.20. CGY outshot STL 39 to 24. R. Thomas led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Backlund had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Binnington stopped 36 of 39.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
STL	2	0	1	1	4
CGY	1	1	1	0	3

1st 12:49STLZ. BolducPP0.11 xG
1st 14:49STLR. Thomas0.16 xG
1st 15:04CGYJ. Pelletier0.24 xG
2nd 5:23CGYM. CoronatoPP0.10 xG
3rd 6:00STLP. Buchnevich0.26 xG
3rd 7:06CGYM. Weegar0.18 xG
OT 2:25STLC. Parayko0.58 xG

Team Stats

STLCGY

24Shots on goal39

3.25Expected goals3.20

47Shot attempts75

185v5 shots on goal29

1/3Power play1/4

16Hits20

21Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes8

19Giveaways11

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.25 xGCGY 3.20 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL24 on goal, 4 scored

CGY39 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	2	3	4	1	3	+2	0	23:29	2:58
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:22	2:59
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	2	1	2	+2	0	16:32	2:59
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	16:12	1:11
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	15:53	1:11
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	10:10	1:10
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	17:19	2:35
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:57	1:10
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	12:53	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	11:49	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	10:47	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	10:42	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	26:51	1:33
C. Parayko	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	+1	0	29:40	2:59
R. Suter	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	25:01	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	19:41	0:00
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	10:02	0:00
P. Joseph	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	39	36	3	.923	62:25	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	25:03	3:30
C. Zary	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	16:39	3:40
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	16:21	3:10
R. Lomberg	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	7:45	0:00
J. Pelletier	LW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	7:27	0:00
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	4	20:21	2:42
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:12	3:12
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0	18:05	2:02
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	2	17:02	1:54
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:39	2:42
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	+1	0	10:00	0:02
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	10:00	0:00
M. Weegar	D	1	1	2	3	4	1	+1	0	25:16	3:45
D. Miromanov	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	0	19:02	0:40
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-2	0	26:04	2:09
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	20:33	0:02
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	13:24	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:41	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	24	20	4	.833	62:25	OT loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDylan Holloway STL Plays in his hometown1 A, 1 SOG
HometownJake Neighbours STL Plays in his hometown1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.0, CGY 3.1	STL 4, CGY 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	STL 27.6, CGY 32.0	STL 24, CGY 39
Win chance	CGY 52%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	4	0.87	0	30%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	0	0.81	0	30%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.6	6	0.56	0	20%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.6	0	0.67	0	29%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.4	3	0.54	2	12%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	0	0.56	0	24%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	3	0.45	1	19%	1
CGY M. Pospisil	2.0	0	0.48	0	15%	0
STL D. Holloway	1.9	1	0.44	1	19%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.9	2	0.48	1	25%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.9	2	0.61	1	21%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	4	0.93	3	24%	1
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.9	2	0.76	1	22%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	2	0.52	0	11%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	4	0.71	1	25%	1
CGY C. Zary	1.7	3	0.51	1	20%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	3	0.36	1	8%	1
STL B. Saad	1.6	1	0.49	0	22%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.5	0	0.25	1	7%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.3	1	0.36	1	14%	1
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	1	0.24	0	12%	0
CGY J. Pelletier	1.1	4	0.22	1	10%	1
STL R. Faksa	1.1	2	0.27	0	10%	0
CGY B. Pachal	1.1	1	0.12	0	3%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	0	0.24	0	4%	0
STL R. Suter	1.1	0	0.26	1	4%	0
CGY W. Duehr	1.1	1	0.27	0	12%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	0	0.28	0	13%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.0	2	0.36	2	7%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	4	0.22	0	6%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.9	4	0.14	0	8%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	2	0.14	1	9%	0
STL P. Joseph	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	0	0.29	0	11%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	1	0.15	0	2%	0
STL S. Perunovich	0.5	0	0.33	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.