Game Recap: STL 4, CGY 2, October 11, 2025

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Game Recap

STL4

FinalSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night

CGY2

STL beat CGY 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.44 expected goals to 3.60. M. Coronato led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). P. Suter had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Hofer stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	2	2	4
CGY	1	1	0	2

1st 14:49CGYM. CoronatoPP0.08 xG
2nd 12:41STLJ. Neighbours0.10 xG
2nd 14:25STLR. ThomasPP0.09 xG
2nd 14:57CGYM. Coronato0.02 xG
3rd 11:07STLJ. Neighbours0.06 xG
3rd 13:33STLP. Suter0.16 xG

Team Stats

STLCGY

28Shots on goal29

2.44Expected goals3.60

56Shot attempts66

195v5 shots on goal20

1/4Power play1/6

29Hits22

17Blocked shots21

17Penalty minutes13

13Giveaways11

8Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.44 xGCGY 3.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL27 on goal, 4 scored

CGY29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	1	2	1	0	2	+2	2	21:00	3:26
J. Neighbours	LW	2	0	2	3	6	0	+2	0	14:44	3:21
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	2	20:00	3:24
P. Suter	C	1	0	1	5	3	2	+1	2	18:44	3:13
N. Walker	LW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	12:52	0:00
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	10:30	3:33
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	4	4	0	-1	0	20:45	3:21
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	17:52	3:24
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:57	3:19
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	+1	0	9:59	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:42	0:03
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	5:29	0:06
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	1	3	3	+1	0	25:02	2:42
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	24:58	4:07
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	1	1	5	+1	2	23:58	0:16
T. Tucker	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	5	8:19	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	23:03	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	8:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	29	27	2	.931	59:58	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	2	0	2	4	0	1	+1	0	18:27	5:30
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	2	0	3	-1	0	21:27	6:19
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	21:16	6:56
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:21	6:05
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	16:08	3:22
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	2	15:43	0:22
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	14:39	0:21
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	13:38	0:00
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	4	3	0	-2	0	13:02	0:20
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:22	3:57
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:24	4:12
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	5	6:02	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	20:07	0:19
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	-3	0	25:25	6:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	23:51	4:39
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	6	-3	0	17:48	0:17
Z. Parekh	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:21	4:31
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	10:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	28	24	4	.857	56:45	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1J. Kyrou12:54D. Holloway15:32B. Schenn12:50

Line 2P. Buchnevich11:09R. Thomas11:54J. Neighbours9:25

Line 3N. Walker8:23M. Joseph6:40N. Bjugstad5:23

Line 4A. Texier5:42P. Suter10:48J. Snuggerud6:46

Pair 1C. Parayko16:44C. Fowler15:02

Pair 2J. Faulk15:36P. Broberg16:35

Pair 3T. Tucker7:14L. Mailloux7:33

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri11:56M. Gridin12:26M. Coronato11:44

Line 2M. Backlund11:02B. Coleman11:45S. Honzek9:57

Line 3M. Frost10:11Y. Sharangovich10:28J. Farabee10:03

Line 4C. Zary6:12A. Klapka6:26R. Lomberg5:09

Pair 1R. Andersson13:52K. Bahl15:23

Pair 2M. Weegar14:02J. Hanley14:05

Pair 3B. Pachal10:23Z. Parekh11:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownDylan Holloway STL Plays in his hometown4 SOG
HometownJake Neighbours STL Plays in his hometown2 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.0, CGY 2.8	STL 4, CGY 2
Total goals	5.8	6
Shots on goal	STL 25.6, CGY 27.9	STL 28, CGY 29
Win chance	STL 52%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	3	0.87	1	32%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.9	2	0.76	0	32%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	3	0.51	0	22%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	4	0.59	2	23%	2
CGY M. Weegar	2.3	2	0.56	0	12%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.2	0	0.45	0	18%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	4	0.63	0	22%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	2	0.81	1	27%	0
STL P. Suter	2.1	5	0.62	1	25%	1
CGY R. Andersson	1.9	2	0.41	0	10%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.9	1	0.41	1	10%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.9	2	0.43	1	18%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	1	0.98	2	23%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.8	0	0.62	0	22%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.8	1	0.43	1	7%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.8	2	0.45	0	19%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.8	0	0.48	0	17%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.7	2	0.52	1	18%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.6	0	0.40	0	18%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	3	0.46	0	21%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	3	0.56	2	24%	2
STL N. Bjugstad	1.5	0	0.27	0	13%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	1	0.34	0	8%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	2	0.53	1	8%	0
STL N. Walker	1.3	2	0.32	1	15%	0
STL A. Texier	1.3	0	0.34	0	14%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.3	4	0.22	0	12%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	1	0.29	0	10%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.1	1	0.32	0	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	0	0.21	1	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	0	0.18	0	9%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	0	0.16	1	5%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.