Game Recap: STL 0, COL 5, January 31, 2025

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Game Recap

STL0

FinalFri, Jan 31, 2025Every game that night

COL5

COL beat STL 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.78 expected goals to 1.81. COL outshot STL 36 to 19. J. Drouin led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Mittelstadt had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. M. Blackwood stopped 19 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	0	0	0
COL	4	0	1	5

1st 4:57COLJ. Drouin0.19 xG
1st 7:39COLM. Necas0.06 xG
1st 14:43COLJ. DrouinPP0.16 xG
1st 17:25COLC. MakarPP0.04 xG
3rd 13:21COLJ. Kiviranta0.15 xG

Team Stats

STLCOL

19Shots on goal36

1.81Expected goals2.78

44Shot attempts60

165v5 shots on goal29

0/2Power play2/4

37Hits15

13Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways11

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 1.81 xGCOL 2.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL19 on goal, 0 scored

COL35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Buchnevich	LW	2	1	0	-1	0	19:23	2:03
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	-1	2	18:38	1:54
A. Texier	LW	1	1	0	-2	2	18:05	1:57
D. Holloway	LW	1	2	0	0	0	16:55	1:49
B. Schenn	C	1	4	0	0	2	16:41	1:37
J. Kyrou	RW	3	0	0	0	0	15:52	1:50
R. Faksa	C	0	5	1	-2	0	15:12	2:06
M. Joseph	RW	3	9	2	0	2	12:46	0:14
A. Toropchenko	RW	2	3	0	0	0	12:03	0:16
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	1	-1	0	11:42	1:33
N. Walker	LW	1	3	1	0	0	10:14	0:18
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	2	0	-2	0	10:08	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	-1	0	23:34	2:03
P. Broberg	D	2	0	0	0	0	22:10	0:21
J. Faulk	D	0	1	4	-1	0	20:15	1:50
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	-1	0	18:29	0:09
T. Tucker	D	1	3	1	-1	0	16:43	0:00
M. Kessel	D	1	1	1	-2	0	15:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	36	31	5	.861	60:00	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Drouin	LW	2	1	3	2	1	0	+1	0	14:23	5:24
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:13	5:22
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	20:53	5:25
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	4	2	1	+1	0	20:30	5:27
J. Kiviranta	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	2	14:12	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	9:38	0:15
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	15:43	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	15:18	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	14:08	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:06	0:21
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	12:29	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	+1	0	10:21	0:21
C. Makar	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	0	22:09	4:51
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	21:05	0:53
K. Middleton	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	2	16:37	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	21:20	0:21
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:41	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	14:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	19	19	0	1.000	59:18	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.7, COL 3.1	STL 0, COL 5
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	STL 25.6, COL 30.0	STL 19, COL 36
Win chance	COL 58%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	4	1.49	1	40%	0
COL C. Makar	3.0	1	1.07	1	25%	1
COL M. Necas	2.8	4	0.93	1	28%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.8	3	0.82	0	32%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	1	0.63	0	23%	0
COL D. Toews	2.2	1	0.61	1	13%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	2	0.71	1	31%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	2	0.74	0	26%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.9	0	0.85	0	23%	0
COL R. Colton	1.9	0	0.47	0	22%	0
COL M. Wood	1.8	2	0.27	0	13%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.8	1	0.61	0	21%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.8	2	0.83	3	20%	2
STL J. Neighbours	1.6	0	0.46	0	22%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	1	0.35	0	8%	0
COL J. Drury	1.6	2	0.32	0	11%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.5	0	0.40	0	7%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.4	1	0.37	0	14%	0
COL S. Girard	1.4	2	0.38	0	6%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.3	4	0.59	0	17%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	2	0.32	0	13%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	0	0.44	0	8%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	1	0.17	0	5%	0
STL A. Texier	1.1	1	0.31	0	12%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	3	0.22	0	11%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	2	0.22	0	11%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	3	0.27	0	9%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	2	0.24	1	12%	1
STL P. Broberg	1.0	2	0.27	0	6%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.0	3	0.08	1	2%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	1	0.25	0	12%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.8	1	0.16	0	5%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.8	0	0.28	1	12%	0
STL R. Suter	0.7	0	0.19	0	3%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	1	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.