Game Recap: STL 2, COL 1, March 29, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

STL2

FinalSat, Mar 29, 2025Every game that night

COL1

STL beat COL 2-1, with the chances close: 3.25 expected goals to 2.78. R. Thomas led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). Z. Bolduc had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. J. Binnington stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	0	1	2
COL	1	0	0	1

1st 10:57STLZ. BolducPP0.12 xG
1st 12:09COLN. MacKinnon0.20 xG
3rd 8:54STLP. Buchnevich0.54 xG

Team Stats

STLCOL

27Shots on goal29

3.25Expected goals2.78

48Shot attempts74

225v5 shots on goal19

1/4Power play0/1

30Hits25

22Blocked shots9

2Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways17

6Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.25 xGCOL 2.78 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL27 on goal, 2 scored

COL25 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	2	2	3	0	1	+1	0	20:49	3:51
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	20:02	3:52
O. Sundqvist	C	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	13:33	3:29
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	5	2	0	+1	0	13:25	3:35
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	3	3	0	2	19:26	2:33
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:24	2:49
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:56	2:43
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	15:52	2:39
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	12:13	0:11
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	11:29	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	10:39	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	7:52	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	15:06	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	24:39	2:39
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	24:35	0:30
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	20:20	3:26
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:28	0:48
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	11:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	2	22:03	1:34
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:25	1:06
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	21:19	1:35
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	20:21	0:54
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:01	1:34
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:08	0:26
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:00	0:25
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:34	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	9:39	0:26
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	9:28	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:26	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:45	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	25:34	0:28
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	6	3	1	+1	0	26:16	1:32
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	19:51	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	17:00	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:04	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	11:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	27	25	2	.926	58:13	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJake Neighbours STL Turns 23 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.9, COL 3.4	STL 2, COL 1
Total goals	6.3	3
Shots on goal	STL 24.5, COL 29.3	STL 27, COL 29
Win chance	COL 58%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.6	4	1.29	1	36%	1
COL C. Makar	2.7	6	1.01	0	25%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.6	5	0.84	0	35%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	0	0.84	0	26%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.3	3	0.68	0	28%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	1	0.68	0	24%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.0	0	0.66	0	28%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	3	0.67	1	23%	1
STL R. Thomas	1.7	3	0.87	2	22%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	2	0.56	1	12%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.7	1	0.60	0	27%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.6	5	0.45	1	19%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.6	2	0.58	0	20%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	1	0.39	0	17%	0
COL M. Wood	1.5	1	0.22	0	11%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.4	1	0.43	0	7%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.4	2	0.71	0	18%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.4	1	0.24	0	6%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	0	0.27	0	10%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	1	0.44	0	20%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	0	0.33	0	8%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	2	0.25	0	11%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	3	0.31	0	5%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.1	1	0.37	0	16%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	0	0.22	0	10%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	1	0.28	0	9%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.1	1	0.10	0	2%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.0	3	0.39	0	7%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.23	0	9%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.0	1	0.25	0	11%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	1	0.29	1	11%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.8	0	0.15	0	5%	0
COL R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.28	0	5%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.7	1	0.21	0	3%	0
STL R. Suter	0.6	0	0.16	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.