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Game Recap
STL3
COL2
STL beat COL 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.15 expected goals to 2.89. R. Thomas scored three for STL. J. Snuggerud had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Hofer stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| COL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Team Stats
STLCOL
29Shots on goal28
4.15Expected goals2.89
57Shot attempts59
235v5 shots on goal25
0/4Power play0/3
14Hits13
12Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways15
4Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 4.15 xGCOL 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:13 | 5:28 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:32 | 4:32 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:32 | 4:33 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:10 | 3:13 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 4:52 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:49 | 2:19 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 2:07 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 13:48 | 2:05 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Finley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:06 | 0:05 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:14 | 1:07 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:19 | 5:04 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:50 | 1:19 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:47 | 2:16 |
| T. Lindstein | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:25 | 3:57 |
| P. Kelly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 8:07 | 0:00 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:56 | 5:23 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 21:38 | 5:40 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:33 | 5:08 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:53 | 0:46 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:02 | 1:42 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:56 | 0:30 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bardakov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 4:45 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:22 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:15 | 5:32 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:30 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 58:35 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1R. Thomas13:37J. Snuggerud12:59D. Holloway13:19
Line 2P. Suter12:00J. Berggren11:43J. Neighbours9:57
Line 3J. Drouin12:05J. Kyrou12:30D. Dvorsky11:13
Line 4A. Toropchenko9:24J. Finley10:16P. Buchnevich9:19
Pair 1C. Parayko18:58T. Lindstein14:01
Pair 2L. Mailloux15:03P. Broberg14:16
COL
Line 1M. Necas15:25N. MacKinnon14:31A. Lehkonen13:28
Line 2N. Kadri13:19B. Nelson13:38G. Landeskog13:14
Line 3R. Colton11:26J. Drury12:58J. Kiviranta9:50
Line 4P. Kelly8:58L. O'Connor6:42Z. Bardakov4:45
Pair 1S. Malinski16:51D. Toews15:27
Pair 3B. Burns14:01N. Blankenburg11:38
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.8, COL 3.5 | STL 3, COL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 23.5, COL 31.2 | STL 29, COL 28 |
| Win chance | COL 61% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.0 | 5 | 1.43 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.7 | 4 | 0.75 | 3 | 27% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.5 | 4 | 1.06 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| COL N. Kadri | 2.4 | 3 | 0.69 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.4 | 0 | 0.81 | 1 | 34% | 0 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.4 | 8 | 0.61 | 3 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.2 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 2.2 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.0 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.8 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.7 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.7 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.6 | 5 | 0.86 | 3 | 23% | 3 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 4 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL B. Kulak | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL J. Drouin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL T. Lindstein | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 0.9 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL N. Blankenburg | 0.7 | 1 | 0.18 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL J. Finley | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL Z. Bardakov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.