STL beat DET 4-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.95 expected goals to 1.28. D. Holloway scored three for STL. A. Texier had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Binnington stopped 19 of 19.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 1st 16:14STLD. Holloway0.07 xG
- 2nd 0:18STLA. Texier0.05 xG
- 2nd 7:45STLD. Holloway0.21 xG
- 3rd 15:54STLD. HollowayEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.95 xGDET 1.28 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Holloway | LW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:17 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:52 | 2:43 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:53 | 2:38 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:38 | 2:47 |
| A. Texier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:08 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:20 | 2:27 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:12 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:24 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 2 | 22:43 | 0:04 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +4 | 0 | 23:11 | 2:45 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:55 | 0:10 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 19 | 19 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Larkin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 17:59 | 0:55 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:55 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:11 | 0:55 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 15:51 | 0:55 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:00 |
| C. Fischer | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:00 | 0:00 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 22:59 | 0:55 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:23 | 0:00 |
| W. Lagesson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.2, DET 3.2 | STL 4, DET 0 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 4 |
| Shots on goal | STL 28.1, DET 28.5 | STL 21, DET 19 |
| Win chance | DET 50% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.8 | 0 | 0.85 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 2.7 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.5 | 2 | 0.74 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.3 | 1 | 0.73 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.2 | 2 | 0.83 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.1 | 3 | 0.48 | 3 | 21% | 3 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.1 | 0 | 0.89 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 2.0 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.0 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.9 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 2 | 1.01 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.5 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.2 | 5 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET J. Petry | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET C. Fischer | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| DET W. Lagesson | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.