Game Recap: STL 4, DET 6, October 25, 2025

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Game Recap

STL4

FinalSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

DET6

DET beat STL 6-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.22 expected goals to 3.87. S. Edvinsson led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. DeBrincat had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. J. Gibson stopped 25 of 29.

Team Stats

STLDET

29Shots on goal28

3.87Expected goals2.22

64Shot attempts56

215v5 shots on goal24

2/4Power play1/3

17Hits18

18Blocked shots19

6Penalty minutes8

15Giveaways16

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.87 xGDET 2.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL29 on goal, 4 scored

DET27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	2	2	4	0	2	+2	0	15:12	2:21
J. Neighbours	LW	2	0	2	2	2	1	0	0	13:55	3:50
R. Thomas	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+2	0	12:21	3:11
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	2	2	3	-2	0	18:59	4:00
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-1	0	18:42	4:01
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	-4	0	15:42	2:05
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:19	2:17
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-4	0	17:13	2:32
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	15:30	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	13:29	1:10
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	13:16	0:00
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	9:35	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	0	0	24:55	4:03
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	-3	2	23:42	2:25
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	-2	0	25:17	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	21:50	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	9:20	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	8:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	27	22	5	.815	59:43	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Compher	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	2	17:16	0:37
A. Copp	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	16:32	1:22
J. Berggren	RW	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	0	11:45	1:28
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	2	2	2	+1	0	19:49	3:30
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	0	1	6	1	0	+1	0	18:06	3:25
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	21:58	3:26
L. Raymond	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:16	3:29
M. Kasper	C	0	0	0	1	7	0	+2	2	19:59	0:41
M. Appleton	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+3	0	16:36	0:05
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	10:01	1:46
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	6:37	1:47
S. Edvinsson	D	2	0	2	4	2	5	+1	2	20:17	0:02
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	13:56	1:57
T. Hamonic	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	11:16	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+3	0	21:17	3:17
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	21:14	0:10
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	13:44	0:00
J. Bernard-Docker	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:58	0:13

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	29	25	4	.862	60:00	Win
C. Talbot	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1B. Schenn13:54J. Kyrou13:20M. Joseph12:14

Line 2P. Buchnevich12:39P. Suter12:46N. Walker13:16

Line 3J. Neighbours9:48J. Snuggerud12:51R. Thomas8:06

Line 4N. Bjugstad9:35O. Sundqvist10:21D. Holloway14:40

Pair 1C. Fowler20:47C. Parayko22:07

Pair 2J. Faulk18:33P. Broberg18:55

Pair 3T. Tucker7:00M. Kessel8:33

DET

Line 1D. Larkin16:05E. Finnie15:21L. Raymond15:52

Line 2A. DeBrincat14:28M. Kasper17:57M. Appleton13:10

Line 3A. Copp13:14J. Compher14:12J. Berggren10:17

Pair 1S. Edvinsson17:15M. Seider15:11

Pair 2B. Chiarot18:40A. Sandin-Pellikka10:43

Pair 3T. Hamonic10:02A. Johansson12:27

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustin Faulk DET Faces STL, his team until Mar 20262 A, 1 SOG
HometownCam Fowler STL Plays near home (born in Windsor)1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.0, DET 3.0	STL 4, DET 6
Total goals	6.1	10
Shots on goal	STL 24.5, DET 27.1	STL 29, DET 28
Win chance	DET 50%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	2.9	6	0.79	1	30%	1
DET D. Larkin	2.7	1	0.93	0	33%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	4	0.84	1	33%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.3	2	0.74	1	26%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	1	0.50	0	8%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	3	0.83	1	27%	1
DET M. Kasper	1.9	1	0.50	0	21%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.8	2	0.47	0	11%	0
DET L. Raymond	1.8	1	0.75	0	24%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.8	2	0.62	1	20%	1
STL R. Thomas	1.7	1	1.02	2	24%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	1	0.45	2	8%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	1	0.50	0	22%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	2	0.61	0	22%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.6	0	0.29	0	13%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.5	4	0.46	2	18%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.5	2	0.63	1	11%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	0	0.38	0	10%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.4	0	0.47	0	18%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	2	0.53	2	23%	2
STL N. Bjugstad	1.3	0	0.26	0	13%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.3	0	0.32	0	12%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	1	0.20	0	6%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	1.2	3	0.24	1	8%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	1	0.45	2	17%	1
DET A. Copp	1.2	1	0.40	2	15%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	3	0.31	0	10%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.2	4	0.38	2	17%	1
DET T. Hamonic	1.2	2	0.16	1	4%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	2	0.31	0	14%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.0	4	0.30	2	8%	2
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	0	0.35	0	12%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	0	0.16	0	4%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.8	0	0.18	0	6%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.8	0	0.16	0	4%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	0	0.13	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.