Game Recap: STL 5, DET 4, October 31, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

STL5

FinalSat, Oct 31, 2026Every game that night

DET4

STL beat DET 5-4, with the chances close: 2.61 expected goals to 2.25. DET outshot STL 28 to 15. L. Raymond led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). E. Finnie had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Hofer stopped 24 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	1	3	5
DET	1	2	1	4

1st 2:29STLD. Dvorsky0.21 xG
1st 8:13DETJ. Compher0.14 xG
2nd 0:41DETK. Kolesar0.22 xG
2nd 13:14DETL. Raymond0.08 xG
2nd 19:32STLJ. Snuggerud0.04 xG
3rd 3:29DETE. FinniePP0.13 xG
3rd 8:37STLP. Buchnevich0.14 xG
3rd 12:57STLJ. Barron0.06 xG
3rd 13:15STLA. Kaskimaki0.09 xG

Team Stats

STLDET

15Shots on goal28

2.61Expected goals2.25

46Shot attempts52

155v5 shots on goal24

0/3Power play1/2

21Hits30

12Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways16

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.61 xGDET 2.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL15 on goal, 5 scored

DET28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	1	2	1	1	0	+2	0	18:59	3:24
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	23:48	3:25
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+2	0	16:56	2:33
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	2	16:51	3:13
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:21	2:26
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	12:02	0:09
D. Dvorsky	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	11:03	0:00
A. Kaskimaki	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	10:40	0:07
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	10:36	0:07
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	17:05	2:28
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	16:39	3:20
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	12:08	0:00
J. Barron	D	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	16:00	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	+2	0	27:09	3:50
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	21:32	2:07
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	+2	0	21:22	0:00
A. Jiricek	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	20:22	2:36
T. Lindstein	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	10:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	28	24	4	.857	59:28	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Raymond	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	19:18	1:41
E. Finnie	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	-2	2	21:13	1:41
M. Rasmussen	C	0	1	1	0	1	3	-2	0	14:28	1:01
J. Compher	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-2	0	14:01	0:00
K. Kolesar	RW	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	0	10:15	0:00
C. Mazur	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	7:15	0:00
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	20:36	1:01
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	2	20:01	1:41
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	-2	0	18:50	1:41
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	+1	2	15:40	1:01
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:53	1:01
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	9:09	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	-1	0	24:33	1:41
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	1	2	3	+1	0	22:03	1:01
W. Wallinder	D	0	0	0	2	2	6	0	0	20:08	0:00
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:55	0:00
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	14:19	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	13:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	15	10	5	.667	57:00	Loss
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas16:31J. Snuggerud13:41J. Neighbours12:39

Line 2J. Berggren11:57M. McTavish12:44C. McMichael12:23

Line 3A. Toropchenko9:50P. Suter9:33A. Kaskimaki9:56

Line 4D. Dvorsky11:03D. Holloway13:08

Pair 1C. Fowler17:30A. Jiricek17:41

Pair 2B. Carlo17:13P. Broberg18:58

Pair 3J. Barron13:59T. Lindstein10:14

DET

Line 1A. Copp15:17L. Raymond14:37M. Brandsegg-Nygård14:39

Line 2V. Arvidsson14:48E. Finnie14:46A. DeBrincat13:59

Line 3J. Compher11:02M. Rasmussen11:48N. Danielson10:41

Line 4K. Kolesar7:29S. Dries6:57C. Mazur7:15

Pair 1B. Chiarot17:05M. Seider17:08

Pair 2J. Faulk19:20W. Wallinder17:40

Pair 3A. Englund13:01A. Johansson11:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

3 of 16 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+110	-120	3	Under
STL D. Holloway	2.5	+130	-155	1	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	+135	-152	1	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	-108	-115	4	Over
STL M. McTavish	2.5	+138	-150	1	Under
DET M. Seider	2.5	+142	-160	1	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-120	+100	2	Under
DET A. Copp	1.5	+105	+100	1	Under
STL C. McMichael	1.5	+105	-125	1	Under
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-165	+130	5	Over
DET J. Faulk	1.5	+130	-150	1	Under
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	+115	-125	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	-160	+130	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	1.5	+100	-115	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	+110	-135	1	Under
STL R. Thomas	1.5	+115	-125	2	Over

8 of 33 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+155	-220	0	Under
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+1000	-2500	0	Under
STL A. Kaskimaki	0.5	+1100	-1600	1	Over
STL A. Toropchenko	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+1100	-1600	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+420	-650	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+650	-800	1	Over
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+260	-350	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+290	-370	1	Over
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
DET J. Compher	0.5	+600	-900	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+280	-420	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+230	-320	1	Over
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+1100	-2000	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+220	-290	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+380	-700	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+275	-330	0	Under
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+460	-800	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+360	-475	1	Over
STL P. Suter	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+290	-390	0	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
STL T. Lindstein	0.5	+1700	–	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+205	-270	0	Under
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+1700	-2500	0	Under

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+240	-275	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+130	-165	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+280	-295	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+220	-250	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+176	-210	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+230	-295	1	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+210	-230	1	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+176	-205	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+124	-130	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+260	-275	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+230	-275	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+115	-125	1	Over
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+164	-175	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+225	-275	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+105	-120	1	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+170	-200	0	Under

10 of 17 overs hit (59%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+130	-155	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-180	+145	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+185	-220	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+150	-160	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+105	-110	1	Over
DET E. Finnie	0.5	-108	-105	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+170	-200	1	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+105	-120	1	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	-125	+105	2	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-155	+140	2	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+125	-150	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+115	-125	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	-120	+105	1	Over
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+120	-132	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+120	-140	1	Over
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-160	+135	1	Over
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-135	+120	0	Under

3 of 17 overs hit (18%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+230	-325	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+380	-450	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+300	-450	1	Over
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+340	-450	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+220	-300	1	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+230	-325	1	Over
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+280	-375	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
STL J. Hofer	25.5	-115	-105	24	Under
DET J. Gibson	21.5	-115	-108	10	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
DET M. Seider	2.5	-125	-110	2	Under
DET J. Faulk	1.5	-120	-120	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustin Faulk DET Faces STL, his team until Mar 20261 A, 1 SOG
HometownCam Fowler STL Plays near home (born in Windsor)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, DET 3.1	STL 5, DET 4
Total goals	6.2	9
Shots on goal	STL 25.0, DET 29.1	STL 15, DET 28
Win chance	DET 51%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.3	3	0.95	0	35%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	2.9	2	0.83	0	30%	0
DET M. Seider	2.3	1	0.62	1	9%	0
STL M. McTavish	2.3	1	0.58	0	22%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.3	1	0.71	2	25%	1
DET L. Raymond	2.3	4	0.85	2	27%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.2	1	0.72	1	24%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.9	0	0.44	0	16%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.8	5	0.52	1	22%	1
DET J. Faulk	1.7	1	0.43	1	10%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	1	0.64	1	24%	1
STL C. McMichael	1.6	1	0.54	0	19%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	2	0.97	1	26%	0
DET A. Copp	1.6	1	0.51	0	17%	0
STL A. Jiricek	1.5	2	0.22	0	6%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	0	0.55	1	22%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	0	0.46	1	10%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.4	0	0.36	1	17%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	2	0.20	0	6%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.2	0	0.41	0	17%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	2	0.25	1	13%	1
STL A. Kaskimaki	1.2	1	0.20	1	9%	1
STL P. Suter	1.1	0	0.35	1	15%	0
DET J. Compher	1.1	1	0.36	1	15%	1
STL B. Carlo	1.1	1	0.16	0	4%	0
DET S. Dries	1.1	1	0.16	0	10%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	0	0.45	0	8%	0
DET N. Danielson	1.1	0	0.25	0	10%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	0	0.21	1	9%	0
STL T. Lindstein	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
DET W. Wallinder	1.0	2	0.27	0	6%	0
DET A. Johansson	1.0	2	0.20	0	4%	0
STL J. Barron	0.9	1	0.23	2	6%	1
DET C. Mazur	0.8	1	0.12	1	6%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.6	2	0.17	1	8%	1
DET A. Englund	0.6	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.