Game Recap: STL 2, EDM 4, December 7, 2024

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Game Recap

STL2

FinalSat, Dec 7, 2024Every game that night

EDM4

EDM beat STL 4-2, with the chances close: 2.64 expected goals to 2.73. STL outshot EDM 31 to 21. C. McDavid led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Holloway had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. S. Skinner stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	0	2	2
EDM	1	2	1	4

1st 12:25EDMC. Perry0.11 xG
2nd 5:19EDMC. McDavid0.23 xG
2nd 14:37EDMZ. HymanPP0.43 xG
3rd 5:02STLD. Holloway0.24 xG
3rd 13:09STLJ. NeighboursPP0.12 xG
3rd 14:18EDMT. Stecher0.02 xG

Team Stats

STLEDM

31Shots on goal21

2.73Expected goals2.64

61Shot attempts52

255v5 shots on goal20

1/2Power play1/1

26Hits10

12Blocked shots18

2Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways15

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.73 xGEDM 2.64 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL29 on goal, 2 scored

EDM21 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	22:54	2:03
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	4	2	0	-1	0	22:16	2:03
J. Neighbours	LW	1	0	1	1	3	2	0	0	19:47	2:03
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	19:23	2:03
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	15:06	0:00
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	6	0	-1	0	16:02	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	14:29	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	14:26	0:00
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	12:38	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	10:14	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	9:11	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	8:58	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	0	2	4	0	0	23:40	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	25:04	1:12
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	22:33	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	21:05	0:00
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	13:33	0:51
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	21	17	4	.810	57:29	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	+1	0	21:42	1:16
C. McDavid	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	0	21:42	1:16
Z. Hyman	LW	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	20:43	1:16
J. Skinner	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:04	0:00
C. Perry	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	8:16	0:00
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	18:14	1:16
M. Janmark	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:46	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	15:39	0:00
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:03	0:00
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	12:22	0:00
C. Brown	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	11:08	0:00
D. Ryan	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:21	0:00
D. Nurse	D	0	1	1	1	4	2	+2	0	22:17	0:00
T. Stecher	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	2	16:30	0:00
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	22:36	1:16
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	21:56	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	20:17	0:00
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	15:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDylan Holloway STL Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20241 G, 5 SOG
Old teamKasperi Kapanen EDM Faces STL, his team until Nov 20242 SOG
Old teamPhilip Broberg STL Faces EDM, his team until Jun 20243 SOG
HometownColton Parayko STL Plays near home (born in St. Albert)1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.6, EDM 3.5	STL 2, EDM 4
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	STL 24.5, EDM 33.6	STL 31, EDM 21
Win chance	EDM 64%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.6	2	1.70	2	41%	1
EDM Z. Hyman	3.0	5	0.80	1	37%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	2.8	2	1.36	2	44%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.5	3	0.74	1	29%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	0	0.86	0	16%	0
EDM J. Skinner	2.4	0	0.58	1	25%	0
EDM D. Nurse	2.2	1	0.39	1	10%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.2	0	0.86	0	25%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	2.1	1	0.48	0	11%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.8	2	0.90	1	24%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	4	0.68	1	25%	0
STL D. Holloway	1.8	5	0.41	1	19%	1
STL J. Faulk	1.8	1	0.45	0	9%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.8	1	0.44	1	24%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.7	1	0.55	0	20%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.6	0	0.36	1	9%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.6	2	0.53	0	23%	0
EDM C. Brown	1.6	2	0.34	0	12%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.5	0	0.30	0	7%	0
STL B. Saad	1.5	3	0.43	0	20%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	1	0.31	0	14%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.3	2	0.34	0	13%	0
EDM C. Perry	1.2	1	0.35	1	17%	1
STL Z. Bolduc	1.2	3	0.33	0	14%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.21	0	11%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	1	0.24	0	10%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.0	3	0.39	0	7%	0
EDM T. Emberson	1.0	1	0.20	0	3%	0
STL R. Suter	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	0	0.25	0	12%	0
EDM M. Janmark	0.9	0	0.34	0	11%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.9	1	0.15	1	3%	1
EDM D. Ryan	0.8	0	0.17	0	9%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.7	0	0.26	0	11%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	1	0.15	0	3%	0
STL S. Perunovich	0.5	2	0.28	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.