EDM beat STL 4-3, with the chances close: 2.49 expected goals to 2.84. P. Buchnevich led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Kulak had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Pickard stopped 23 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| EDM | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
- 1st 8:44STLR. SuterSH0.13 xG
- 2nd 1:30EDMC. Brown0.17 xG
- 2nd 12:39EDMV. Podkolzin0.26 xG
- 3rd 0:14STLJ. Kyrou0.21 xG
- 3rd 1:41EDMV. Arvidsson0.18 xG
- 3rd 5:25STLP. Buchnevich0.24 xG
- 3rd 19:39EDMC. Brown0.15 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 2.84 xGEDM 2.49 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:45 | 0:43 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:17 | 1:20 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:28 | 1:17 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 5 | 16:54 | 1:15 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:49 | 1:20 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:46 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:45 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:35 | 0:03 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:45 | 0:00 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:40 |
| R. Suter | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:46 | 1:01 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:22 | 1:05 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:21 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 59:05 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 4 | 20:35 | 2:03 |
| C. Brown | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 19:34 | 0:00 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:43 | 2:03 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:37 | 0:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 16:58 | 2:03 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 14:04 | 0:23 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 7 | 12:42 | 0:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:39 | 0:00 |
| N. Philp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 28:06 | 1:40 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 29:04 | 0:06 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 28:15 | 1:57 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 59:14 | Win |
| O. Rodrigue | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.0, EDM 3.4 | STL 3, EDM 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | STL 25.5, EDM 31.1 | STL 26, EDM 23 |
| Win chance | EDM 56% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.9 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 2.7 | 0 | 1.36 | 3 | 36% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.6 | 1 | 0.78 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.6 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.5 | 5 | 0.69 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.3 | 0 | 0.56 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.73 | 3 | 25% | 1 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 2 | 0.97 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.5 | 3 | 0.31 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.5 | 3 | 0.35 | 2 | 12% | 2 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.5 | 5 | 0.28 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.3 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM N. Philp | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.