Game Recap: STL 3, LAK 2 (SO), March 5, 2025

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Game Recap

STL3

Final/SOWed, Mar 5, 2025Every game that night

LAK2

STL beat LAK 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 3.19 expected goals to 2.24. P. Danault had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Binnington stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
STL	1	1	0	1	3
LAK	1	1	0	0	2

1st 18:50STLJ. Neighbours0.04 xG
1st 19:22LAKQ. Byfield0.09 xG
2nd 10:14LAKT. Moore0.03 xG
2nd 19:13STLR. ThomasPP0.15 xG

Team Stats

STLLAK

30Shots on goal23

3.19Expected goals2.24

67Shot attempts56

255v5 shots on goal17

1/4Power play0/2

20Hits22

19Blocked shots17

4Penalty minutes8

10Giveaways23

1Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.19 xGLAK 2.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL28 on goal, 2 scored

LAK23 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+1	0	23:27	3:21
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:38	3:00
J. Neighbours	LW	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	19:01	3:06
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	2	20:32	3:16
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	19:49	3:07
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	17:22	3:24
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	14:46	1:54
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	12:54	2:25
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	3	5	0	-1	0	11:09	0:05
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	10:54	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	10:38	0:06
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:23	0:09
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	23:13	0:52
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	19:15	2:40
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	23:18	3:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:44	0:15
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	17:05	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	16:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	23	21	2	.913	64:45	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	4	5	1	+1	0	20:51	0:34
K. Fiala	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	19:15	3:21
W. Foegele	LW	0	1	1	3	3	0	+1	0	17:44	0:39
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	15:58	0:03
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	2	20:44	3:26
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	+1	0	20:20	3:26
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:36	3:21
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	5	1	2	+1	0	18:36	0:34
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:05	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	8:00	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	7:43	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	6:46	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	1	1	0	0	4	+2	0	25:17	0:05
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+2	0	24:15	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	28:37	3:23
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	25:27	0:34
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:00	0:34
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	30	28	2	.933	65:00	OT loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.7, LAK 2.9	STL 3, LAK 2
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	STL 24.7, LAK 28.6	STL 30, LAK 23
Win chance	LAK 54%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.3	0	0.92	1	34%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	3	0.88	0	36%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.7	3	0.58	1	24%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	1	0.52	0	22%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.4	4	0.68	0	28%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	3	0.57	1	23%	1
STL D. Holloway	2.1	2	0.57	0	22%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	4	0.68	1	20%	1
STL R. Thomas	1.9	3	0.83	1	22%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	1	0.70	1	24%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.8	5	0.59	0	19%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	2	0.56	0	19%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.6	0	0.56	0	13%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	0	0.34	1	9%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.5	3	0.39	0	7%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	1	0.42	1	20%	1
LAK A. Kopitar	1.5	0	0.77	0	23%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.4	2	0.40	0	16%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.31	1	7%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.3	0	0.30	0	5%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	1	0.22	0	6%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.2	0	0.32	0	11%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.2	2	0.30	0	7%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.2	0	0.26	1	6%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	3	0.27	0	9%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	0	0.39	1	8%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	3	0.21	0	10%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.0	1	0.17	0	8%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	2	0.33	0	12%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	0	0.24	0	12%	0
STL R. Faksa	0.9	0	0.21	0	8%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.8	1	0.19	0	10%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.8	1	0.22	0	3%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0
STL R. Suter	0.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.6	0	0.11	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.