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Game Recap
STL1
LAK2
LAK beat STL 2-1 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.02 expected goals to 1.47. D. Kuemper stopped 19 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| LAK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 14:35LAKA. Kopitar0.06 xG
- 3rd 4:16STLN. Leddy0.01 xG
- OT 0:27LAKQ. Byfield0.13 xG
Team Stats
STLLAK
20Shots on goal23
1.47Expected goals3.02
50Shot attempts64
165v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play0/2
35Hits36
23Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes4
11Giveaways23
6Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 1.47 xGLAK 3.02 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:58 | 1:25 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 | 1:07 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:06 | 2:46 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 | 2:26 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:55 | 2:48 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:44 | 2:36 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:01 | 2:49 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:25 | 1:21 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 0:05 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:09 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 10:06 | 0:03 |
| N. Leddy | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 25:11 | 1:11 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:41 | 1:14 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Kessel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:27 | OT loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 3:18 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:40 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:24 | 3:19 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:42 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:00 | 0:00 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 0:37 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 3:17 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:40 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:02 | 3:20 |
| T. Jeannot | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:27 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 27:03 | 3:29 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:43 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:07 | 0:06 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:32 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 20 | 19 | 1 | .950 | 60:18 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.6, LAK 3.0 | STL 1, LAK 2 |
| Total goals | 5.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | STL 24.2, LAK 28.5 | STL 20, LAK 23 |
| Win chance | LAK 57% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.2 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 2 | 0.92 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.7 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.6 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.3 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.2 | 3 | 0.71 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 0 | 0.81 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.9 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.67 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 0 | 0.71 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.6 | 1 | 0.59 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.4 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 3 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK T. Jeannot | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL M. Kessel | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.