Game Recap: STL 4, MIN 6, January 7, 2025

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Game Recap

STL4

FinalTue, Jan 7, 2025Every game that night

MIN6

MIN beat STL 6-4, with the chances close: 2.30 expected goals to 2.25. J. Middleton led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). Z. Bolduc had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. M. Fleury stopped 15 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	3	0	4
MIN	2	1	3	6

1st 1:23MINZ. Bogosian0.02 xG
1st 2:12MINJ. Merrill0.07 xG
1st 13:26STLP. Buchnevich0.17 xG
2nd 1:24STLJ. KyrouPP0.04 xG
2nd 2:51STLJ. Neighbours0.15 xG
2nd 4:33STLR. Thomas0.15 xG
2nd 9:41MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.07 xG
3rd 1:16MINJ. Middleton0.08 xG
3rd 3:57MINM. Boldy0.19 xG
3rd 19:24MINM. JohanssonEN0.50 xG

Team Stats

STLMIN

33Shots on goal26

2.25Expected goals2.30

70Shot attempts45

295v5 shots on goal25

1/1Power play0/0

31Hits29

12Blocked shots19

0Penalty minutes2

25Giveaways19

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.25 xGMIN 2.30 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL33 on goal, 4 scored

MIN25 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
D. Holloway	LW	0	2	2	1	2	0	-1	18:10	0:07
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	2	3	0	-3	18:37	0:00
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-4	17:39	0:00
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	4	0	1	-2	17:34	0:07
B. Saad	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-3	16:17	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	4	1	1	+1	13:50	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	13:20	0:07
O. Sundqvist	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	12:28	0:00
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	17:47	0:07
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:49	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	9	0	0	13:19	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	11:34	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	2	2	3	0	1	-3	24:14	0:07
R. Suter	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	16:36	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-2	24:15	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	2	1	4	-2	23:38	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	17:43	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	11:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	25	20	5	.800	57:16	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	2	2	3	0	2	+1	0	19:47	0:00
M. Johansson	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	18:00	0:00
R. Hartman	RW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	16:21	0:00
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	4	0	1	+1	0	20:34	0:00
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	0	1	2	3	1	+2	0	17:48	0:00
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+2	0	19:00	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:53	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	13:18	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	13:04	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	9:54	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:36	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:22	0:00
J. Middleton	D	1	1	2	3	3	1	0	0	22:29	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	0	3	4	+2	0	32:42	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	1	0	1	1	5	2	+3	0	23:48	0:00
J. Merrill	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	2	19:11	0:00
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+2	0	16:32	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	18	14	4	.778	24:33
M. Fleury	15	15	0	1.000	35:27	Win

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.9, MIN 3.2	STL 4, MIN 6
Total goals	6.1	10
Shots on goal	STL 27.5, MIN 29.9	STL 33, MIN 26
Win chance	MIN 54%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	4	0.89	1	31%	1
MIN J. Ek	3.0	2	0.80	1	29%	1
STL J. Kyrou	2.6	4	0.77	1	30%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.3	3	0.93	2	25%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	1	0.53	2	22%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	0	0.51	2	22%	0
MIN M. Rossi	2.1	3	0.75	0	27%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	2	0.72	1	25%	1
MIN J. Brodin	1.8	0	0.42	1	9%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.8	3	0.44	2	8%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.8	2	0.55	0	20%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.7	2	0.84	1	22%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.7	3	0.38	0	8%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.7	1	0.41	0	18%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.6	0	0.55	0	10%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.6	1	0.41	1	21%	1
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	2	0.41	2	16%	1
STL B. Saad	1.5	2	0.42	1	20%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.3	4	0.34	1	15%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	2	0.46	0	8%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.25	0	15%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.2	2	0.33	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.2	1	0.19	1	4%	1
STL A. Texier	1.2	1	0.33	0	13%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.1	3	0.29	0	7%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	0	0.39	0	16%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	3	0.28	2	7%	1
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	0	0.20	0	11%	0
STL N. Walker	1.0	0	0.25	0	12%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	1	0.29	1	11%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	0	0.07	0	6%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	1	0.20	1	3%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.7	1	0.18	0	6%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	1	0.15	1	3%	1
STL T. Tucker	0.6	2	0.09	0	3%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	1	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.