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Game Recap
STL5
MIN1
STL beat MIN 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 5.16 expected goals to 2.33. STL outshot MIN 28 to 18. J. Kyrou scored three for STL. J. Hofer stopped 17 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 4:17STLB. Schenn0.46 xG
- 2nd 10:51STLJ. Neighbours0.32 xG
- 2nd 12:22STLJ. Kyrou0.22 xG
- 2nd 12:47MINJ. Middleton0.08 xG
- 3rd 11:30STLJ. Kyrou0.07 xG
- 3rd 17:40STLJ. KyrouEN0.82 xG
Team Stats
STLMIN
28Shots on goal18
5.16Expected goals2.33
68Shot attempts57
255v5 shots on goal18
0/2Power play0/1
17Hits19
19Blocked shots19
2Penalty minutes2
18Giveaways14
1Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 5.16 xGMIN 2.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kyrou | RW | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 16:08 | 2:08 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:33 | 1:36 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 17:40 | 1:35 |
| B. Schenn | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:28 | 2:12 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:47 | 2:19 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:03 | 2:12 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:06 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:14 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:24 | 0:10 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:50 | 1:37 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 1:34 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:49 | 1:53 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:47 | 2:07 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:16 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:01 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:59 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 18 | 17 | 1 | .944 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:05 | 2:00 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:19 | 2:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:48 | 2:00 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 15:23 | 0:00 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:20 | 0:38 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:06 | 1:20 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Middleton | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:52 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 25:05 | 2:00 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:26 | 0:02 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 59:15 | Loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 2.9, MIN 2.8 | STL 5, MIN 1 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | STL 27.7, MIN 27.1 | STL 28, MIN 18 |
| Win chance | STL 51% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.5 | 1 | 0.95 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.4 | 3 | 0.68 | 3 | 28% | 3 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 3 | 0.86 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.2 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.75 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.0 | 1 | 0.91 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 4 | 0.45 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.7 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 2 | 0.59 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.5 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.4 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.43 | 2 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 1 | 0.23 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 0.9 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.