Game Recap: STL 3, MIN 1, March 1, 2026

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Game Recap

STL3

FinalSun, Mar 1, 2026Every game that night

MIN1

STL beat MIN 3-1, with the chances close: 2.33 expected goals to 2.54. R. Thomas led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Hofer stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	1	2	3
MIN	0	1	0	1

2nd 16:09MINK. KaprizovPP0.12 xG
2nd 18:05STLL. Mailloux0.04 xG
3rd 16:21STLP. Buchnevich0.07 xG
3rd 19:35STLR. ThomasEN0.59 xG

Team Stats

STLMIN

24Shots on goal23

2.33Expected goals2.54

50Shot attempts50

215v5 shots on goal17

0/1Power play1/2

19Hits13

6Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes2

15Giveaways18

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.33 xGMIN 2.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL24 on goal, 3 scored

MIN23 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+3	2	17:08	1:17
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	0	17:07	0:29
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	16:52	1:17
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	1	1	2	2	0	+2	0	16:41	1:17
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:31	1:17
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	16:30	0:00
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:17	0:43
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:21	0:43
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:34	0:43
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:08	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:52	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	9:38	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	1	0	1	3	3	1	+2	0	20:32	0:14
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	25:57	1:17
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	25:28	0:43
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	18:42	0:00
M. Kessel	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	14:31	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	25:22	2:47
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	20:46	2:47
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	19:52	2:47
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	19:20	2:47
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	16:38	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	15:00	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:08	0:00
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:05	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	13:54	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:19	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	9:05	0:00
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	7:04	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	27:57	2:47
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	23:45	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	18:39	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	17:07	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:00	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	23	21	2	.913	58:33	Loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1P. Suter15:46D. Holloway16:04D. Dvorsky14:38

Line 2R. Thomas15:31J. Snuggerud15:11B. Schenn15:35

Line 3J. Kyrou15:24P. Buchnevich14:08J. Neighbours12:51

Line 4A. Toropchenko8:49J. Finley8:41O. Sundqvist8:20

Pair 1J. Faulk20:38P. Broberg20:33

Pair 2L. Mailloux20:11C. Fowler18:35

Pair 3T. Tucker13:24M. Kessel14:31

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman16:31M. Zuccarello15:06K. Kaprizov21:08

Line 2J. Ek14:57M. Boldy15:00M. Johansson13:37

Line 3V. Tarasenko12:48D. Yurov13:17Y. Trenin14:18

Line 4V. Hinostroza9:19N. Sturm9:05T. Pitlick7:04

Pair 1Q. Hughes23:43B. Faber22:42

Pair 2J. Spurgeon16:10J. Middleton17:17

Pair 3Z. Bogosian13:22D. Hunt13:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayTyler Tucker STL Turns 26 that day1 SOG
HometownJimmy Snuggerud STL Plays near home (born in Minneapolis)1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.8, MIN 3.5	STL 3, MIN 1
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	STL 26.5, MIN 29.2	STL 24, MIN 23
Win chance	MIN 61%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	5	1.32	1	46%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	1	1.08	1	36%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.8	2	1.23	1	14%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	3	0.68	0	28%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.4	3	0.70	0	26%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.3	2	0.59	0	22%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.3	1	0.60	0	25%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.1	2	0.49	1	18%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	3	0.89	0	24%	0
MIN B. Faber	2.0	2	0.54	0	12%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	2	0.66	2	23%	1
STL J. Faulk	2.0	1	0.46	0	9%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.8	1	0.57	0	23%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	1	0.45	0	19%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	3	0.81	2	21%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.6	0	0.48	1	19%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.5	1	0.33	0	16%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	1	0.36	0	8%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	1	0.52	0	23%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	0	0.54	0	17%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	1	0.40	0	9%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.31	0	14%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	1	0.34	0	5%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.2	3	0.15	1	5%	1
STL T. Tucker	1.2	1	0.19	0	5%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.1	2	0.46	0	16%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	0	0.32	0	6%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	0	0.20	0	9%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	1	0.22	0	4%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.8	0	0.26	0	9%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	0	0.21	0	10%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.6	1	0.12	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	0	0.17	0	2%	0
STL J. Finley	0.6	1	0.17	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.