Game Recap: STL 4, MIN 5, October 15, 2026

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Game Recap

STL4

FinalThu, Oct 15, 2026Every game that night

MIN5

MIN beat STL 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 4.23 expected goals to 3.06. MIN outshot STL 39 to 26. M. Boldy scored three for MIN. M. Boldy had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. J. Wallstedt stopped 22 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	1	2	4
MIN	2	3	0	5

1st 1:45STLJ. BerggrenPP0.26 xG
1st 7:31MINM. BoldyPP0.15 xG
1st 11:17MIND. Yurov0.12 xG
2nd 4:57STLM. McTavish0.11 xG
2nd 5:24MINM. Boldy0.13 xG
2nd 8:47MINK. Kaprizov0.09 xG
2nd 16:47MINM. Boldy0.12 xG
3rd 16:00STLR. ThomasSH0.45 xG
3rd 19:45STLD. Holloway0.19 xG

Team Stats

STLMIN

26Shots on goal39

3.06Expected goals4.23

50Shot attempts69

185v5 shots on goal25

1/2Power play1/5

19Hits23

15Blocked shots12

8Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways15

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 3.06 xGMIN 4.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL25 on goal, 4 scored

MIN38 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	2	22:49	1:56
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	0	23:15	1:54
J. Berggren	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-2	0	15:13	0:53
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	15:09	0:04
M. McTavish	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	2	14:36	0:53
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	11:22	0:53
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	20:28	1:53
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:45	0:53
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	4	13:40	1:55
D. Peterson	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	8:12	0:02
Z. Dean	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:27	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	6:22	0:01
C. Fowler	D	0	3	3	3	0	0	-1	0	20:13	0:53
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	3	0	3	+1	0	26:01	0:05
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:26	0:03
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	16:43	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	16:14	0:00
A. Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+1	0	15:43	1:52

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	39	34	5	.872	57:27	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	3	1	4	8	0	1	+1	0	24:51	5:38
K. Kaprizov	LW	1	2	3	6	0	0	+2	0	22:52	5:36
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	2	2	3	4	0	-1	0	23:12	5:21
D. Yurov	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:26	4:13
M. Shabanov	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	14:43	5:25
Y. Trenin	C	0	1	1	1	7	1	+1	0	12:49	0:13
M. McCarron	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	11:23	0:14
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:37	3:57
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	14:47	3:47
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:48	3:04
R. Lorenz	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:37	0:02
T. Pitlick	C	0	0	0	2	5	2	-1	0	7:11	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	2	2	5	0	0	0	0	25:17	6:01
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	22:51	0:36
D. Spacek	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	19:31	2:53
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:27	0:02
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	14:51	0:38
M. Kiersted	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	12:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	26	22	4	.846	59:49	Win
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1D. Holloway19:04J. Snuggerud17:28R. Thomas16:15

Line 2J. Berggren9:43M. McTavish11:52C. McMichael9:49

Line 3J. Neighbours9:08D. Dvorsky9:21P. Suter9:57

Line 4D. Peterson8:10Z. Dean7:27R. Johnston6:21

Pair 1C. Fowler13:11B. Carlo12:28

Pair 2C. Parayko19:37P. Broberg16:27

Pair 3J. Barron16:14A. Jiricek11:58

MIN

Line 1K. Kaprizov16:42M. Boldy17:09J. Ek16:11

Line 2B. Coleman10:49B. Brink11:00R. Hartman10:29

Line 3Y. Trenin10:36M. Shabanov8:38D. Yurov9:11

Line 4M. McCarron9:12R. Lorenz7:35T. Pitlick7:11

Pair 1J. Brodin18:42Q. Hughes17:57

Pair 2D. Spacek14:38M. Kiersted11:23

Pair 3Z. Bogosian13:23D. Hunt13:44

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 14 overs hit (71%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	+130	-150	6	Over
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	+108	-120	8	Over
MIN B. Coleman	2.5	+150	-190	3	Over
STL D. Holloway	2.5	+134	-140	3	Over
MIN J. Ek	2.5	-138	+115	3	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	+120	-140	3	Over
STL M. McTavish	2.5	+132	-170	4	Over
MIN Q. Hughes	2.5	+140	-140	5	Over
STL A. Jiricek	1.5	-135	+105	1	Under
STL C. Fowler	1.5	+146	-190	3	Over
STL C. McMichael	1.5	+115	-115	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	1.5	-110	-110	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	1.5	-132	+120	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	1.5	-104	-120	3	Over

7 of 33 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+1700	-4000	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+1100	-3500	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+340	-490	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+450	-800	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+240	-320	1	Over
MIN D. Hunt	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
MIN D. Spacek	0.5	+1100	-4000	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+550	-700	1	Over
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+650	-900	1	Over
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+230	-250	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+350	-550	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+280	-320	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+125	-140	1	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+165	-190	3	Over
MIN M. Kiersted	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
MIN M. McCarron	0.5	+700	-1400	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+325	-420	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+1400	-2000	0	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+550	-900	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+450	-600	0	Under
STL R. Johnston	0.5	+1400	-2800	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+330	-400	1	Over
MIN T. Pitlick	0.5	+950	-1600	0	Under
MIN Y. Trenin	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+1450	-2800	0	Under
STL Z. Dean	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under

9 of 23 overs hit (39%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+220	-260	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+225	-320	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+390	-375	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+215	-250	3	Over
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+240	-300	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+285	-360	1	Over
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+370	-550	1	Over
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+165	-215	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+320	-475	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+340	-500	0	Under
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+188	-215	2	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+260	-310	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+185	-240	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+100	-135	2	Over
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+110	-135	1	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+230	-285	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+225	-260	1	Over
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-195	+160	2	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+310	-350	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+118	-135	1	Over
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under

13 of 23 overs hit (57%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
MIN K. Kaprizov	1.5	+180	-240	3	Over
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+155	-170	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+145	-200	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+158	-175	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+170	-210	3	Over
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+215	-280	1	Over
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+175	-240	1	Over
STL D. Holloway	0.5	-125	+110	1	Over
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+170	-200	1	Over
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+215	-295	1	Over
MIN J. Brodin	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	-115	+100	2	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+140	-160	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	-200	+180	4	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+105	-130	1	Over
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+120	-145	1	Over
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+195	-265	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	-275	+210	2	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+165	-180	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-135	+120	2	Over
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.5	+425	-650	0	Under

4 of 17 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+310	-650	0	Under
MIN B. Brink	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
MIN B. Coleman	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
MIN D. Yurov	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
MIN J. Ek	0.5	+290	-500	1	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+360	-450	0	Under
MIN K. Kaprizov	0.5	+170	-235	0	Under
MIN M. Boldy	0.5	+160	-240	1	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+325	-600	0	Under
MIN M. Shabanov	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
MIN Q. Hughes	0.5	+195	-200	1	Over
MIN R. Hartman	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+290	-375	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
MIN J. Wallstedt	22.5	-115	-102	22	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
STL C. Parayko	2.5	+140	-195	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJimmy Snuggerud STL Plays near home (born in Minneapolis)3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.9, MIN 3.1	STL 4, MIN 5
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	STL 26.4, MIN 28.6	STL 26, MIN 39
Win chance	MIN 54%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	8	1.02	4	36%	3
MIN K. Kaprizov	2.9	6	1.16	3	43%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.9	3	0.74	2	28%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.4	5	1.07	2	15%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.4	3	0.72	1	24%	1
STL J. Snuggerud	2.3	3	0.68	0	23%	0
STL M. McTavish	2.2	4	0.54	1	19%	1
MIN B. Coleman	2.1	3	0.47	0	21%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.0	0	0.50	0	21%	0
STL C. McMichael	1.7	0	0.55	0	19%	0
STL A. Jiricek	1.7	1	0.26	0	7%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	3	0.90	2	24%	1
MIN J. Brodin	1.6	2	0.36	0	7%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	3	0.30	1	9%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.4	0	0.28	1	13%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	1	0.32	1	15%	0
STL P. Suter	1.3	0	0.37	1	16%	0
MIN M. Shabanov	1.3	0	0.44	1	15%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.3	2	0.41	0	15%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.3	0	0.38	0	8%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	1	0.48	0	19%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.2	2	0.39	1	16%	1
STL C. Fowler	1.2	3	0.47	3	9%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.24	1	11%	0
STL B. Carlo	1.1	0	0.15	0	4%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	2	0.32	1	14%	1
STL Z. Dean	1.0	0	0.14	0	8%	0
STL J. Barron	0.9	2	0.22	0	7%	0
MIN M. Kiersted	0.9	0	0.23	0	4%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
MIN T. Pitlick	0.7	2	0.12	0	6%	0
MIN D. Spacek	0.7	3	0.09	0	2%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.7	2	0.16	0	2%	0
STL R. Johnston	0.5	0	0.14	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.