MTL beat STL 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.93 expected goals to 3.81. J. Armia led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Kyrou had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.1. S. Montembeault stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| MTL | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
- 1st 8:34MTLJ. Evans0.14 xG
- 2nd 1:12MTLK. Dach0.09 xG
- 2nd 1:33STLC. Parayko0.42 xG
- 2nd 4:02STLJ. Neighbours0.32 xG
- 2nd 14:04MTLA. NewhookPP0.18 xG
- 3rd 5:19MTLC. Caufield0.08 xG
- 3rd 16:49MTLJ. ArmiaEN0.40 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.81 xGMTL 2.93 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:56 | 4:58 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 4:40 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:08 | 1:07 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:01 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 19:40 | 4:43 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:46 | 4:49 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:41 | 1:20 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:09 | 1:17 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:36 | 0:33 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 12:22 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:27 |
| C. Parayko | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:12 | 0:04 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:01 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 24:54 | 4:59 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:16 | 0:00 |
| S. Perunovich | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 12:35 | 1:01 |
| P. Joseph | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 25 | 21 | 4 | .840 | 59:15 | Loss |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:21 | 2:13 |
| J. Armia | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:57 | 1:51 |
| J. Evans | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:09 |
| K. Dach | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:45 | 2:07 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:10 | 0:09 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:44 | 2:05 |
| A. Newhook | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:10 | 2:10 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:12 | 1:52 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:13 | 1:43 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:09 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 1:47 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 8:51 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:42 | 2:25 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:49 | 1:50 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:34 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:00 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 59:33 | Win |
| C. Primeau | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.6, MTL 3.1 | STL 2, MTL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | STL 31.3, MTL 29.6 | STL 31, MTL 26 |
| Win chance | STL 57% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.6 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 3.1 | 6 | 0.95 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.3 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.2 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.2 | 2 | 0.85 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 2.2 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 2.0 | 4 | 0.36 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.9 | 3 | 0.50 | 1 | 27% | 1 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.9 | 1 | 0.58 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.9 | 4 | 0.41 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.9 | 0 | 0.60 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.8 | 4 | 0.49 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| STL D. Holloway | 1.7 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.7 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.5 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.5 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.2 | 2 | 0.40 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL P. Joseph | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.9 | 3 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.9 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL S. Perunovich | 0.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.