Game Recap: STL 4, MTL 3, December 7, 2025

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Game Recap

STL4

FinalSun, Dec 7, 2025Every game that night

MTL3

STL beat MTL 4-3, with the chances close: 2.68 expected goals to 3.02. MTL outshot STL 26 to 18. B. Schenn led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Hutson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Binnington stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	2	1	4
MTL	2	0	1	3

1st 8:57STLB. SchennPP0.06 xG
1st 12:20MTLL. Hutson0.34 xG
1st 19:03MTLC. Caufield0.14 xG
2nd 0:26STLD. Holloway0.31 xG
2nd 1:05STLP. Buchnevich0.21 xG
3rd 10:24STLB. Schenn0.24 xG
3rd 16:15MTLN. Dobson0.02 xG

Team Stats

STLMTL

18Shots on goal26

2.68Expected goals3.02

37Shot attempts57

165v5 shots on goal18

1/2Power play0/2

34Hits14

19Blocked shots9

4Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways16

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.68 xGMTL 3.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL18 on goal, 4 scored

MTL26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Holloway	LW	1	2	3	4	3	3	+1	0	19:16	1:28
B. Schenn	C	2	1	3	3	5	0	+1	0	14:54	1:27
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	20:32	1:32
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:43	1:34
M. Joseph	RW	0	1	1	1	4	3	+2	0	13:58	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	16:37	1:20
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:21	1:22
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	13:26	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	12:59	1:30
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:12	1:36
A. Kaskimaki	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:56	0:00
M. Luff	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	8:33	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	2	3	3	0	0	23:00	0:03
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	20:11	1:34
C. Fowler	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	19:37	1:24
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	23:45	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	15:35	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	15:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	26	23	3	.885	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:21	2:19
C. Caufield	RW	1	0	1	5	2	0	+1	0	21:20	2:18
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	17:46	2:08
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	13:21	1:39
J. Davidson	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	10:55	0:00
J. Slafkovský	LW	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	20:43	2:21
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:07	1:38
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:14	1:42
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:37	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	12:22	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	11:34	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:08	1:44
N. Dobson	D	1	1	2	4	0	0	+1	2	22:56	1:15
L. Hutson	D	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	0	25:16	2:45
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	+1	0	24:39	0:11
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:27	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:57	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	10:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	18	14	4	.778	57:33	Loss
K. Kahkonen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1P. Buchnevich15:53R. Thomas15:25J. Neighbours15:08

Line 2B. Schenn13:06D. Holloway16:48M. Joseph12:47

Line 3N. Bjugstad11:25D. Dvorsky10:36P. Suter11:02

Line 4M. Luff8:33A. Kaskimaki8:56O. Sundqvist8:36

Pair 1C. Parayko17:21P. Broberg18:08

Pair 2C. Fowler17:54L. Mailloux15:35

Pair 3J. Faulk16:48T. Tucker13:59

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:46J. Slafkovský15:45C. Caufield15:54

Line 2A. Texier13:18O. Kapanen13:25I. Demidov13:06

Line 3Z. Bolduc11:42J. Davidson10:55J. Veleno10:41

Line 4J. Anderson10:13J. Evans10:34B. Gallagher7:20

Pair 1M. Matheson21:29N. Dobson20:05

Pair 2J. Struble14:53L. Hutson18:37

Pair 3A. Carrier13:35A. Xhekaj10:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamZachary Bolduc MTL Faces STL, his team until May 20251 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.0, MTL 2.9	STL 4, MTL 3
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	STL 25.1, MTL 25.8	STL 18, MTL 26
Win chance	MTL 50%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	5	0.84	1	35%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.1	1	0.94	1	28%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.1	4	0.63	3	24%	1
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.1	1	0.62	0	23%	0
MTL N. Dobson	2.0	4	0.57	2	11%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	1	0.72	1	25%	1
STL N. Bjugstad	1.7	1	0.32	0	16%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.6	0	0.43	1	9%	0
STL P. Suter	1.6	1	0.49	0	21%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	1	0.38	0	16%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.6	0	0.47	1	10%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	1	0.92	1	23%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.6	1	0.46	0	19%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.5	3	0.56	3	21%	2
STL P. Broberg	1.5	0	0.39	0	10%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.4	0	0.29	0	16%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	2	0.39	1	10%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.4	0	0.41	1	19%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	2	0.32	0	17%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.4	2	0.66	1	18%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	2	0.55	0	24%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	0	0.53	1	9%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	5	0.80	1	8%	1
MTL A. Texier	1.4	0	0.36	0	15%	0
STL M. Luff	1.2	0	0.28	0	13%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	1	0.33	1	11%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.1	1	0.23	0	6%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.36	0	13%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.0	1	0.22	0	11%	0
MTL J. Davidson	0.9	0	0.12	1	8%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	1	0.29	0	5%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	0	0.35	0	11%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.8	2	0.11	0	3%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.8	1	0.15	0	5%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.7	0	0.21	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.