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Game Recap
STL3
NSH2
STL beat NSH 3-2, with the chances close: 1.80 expected goals to 1.97. D. Holloway led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Hofer stopped 16 of 18.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| NSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 2:48NSHF. Svechkov0.14 xG
- 1st 10:16NSHB. SkjeiPP0.08 xG
- 2nd 10:35STLD. Holloway0.05 xG
- 3rd 11:57STLC. Fowler0.09 xG
- 3rd 12:19STLD. Holloway0.15 xG
Team Stats
STLNSH
21Shots on goal18
1.80Expected goals1.97
43Shot attempts54
205v5 shots on goal12
0/3Power play1/3
29Hits14
19Blocked shots17
11Penalty minutes11
17Giveaways8
2Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 1.80 xGNSH 1.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:35 | 2:11 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:38 | 2:26 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:46 | 2:52 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 16:00 | 2:45 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:20 | 2:59 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:06 | 1:34 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:53 | 0:00 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:00 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:47 | 1:50 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:06 | 1:34 |
| C. Fowler | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:56 | 1:31 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 24:41 | 3:04 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:53 | 0:09 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 18 | 16 | 2 | .889 | 59:54 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 1:03 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:03 | 1:25 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:31 | 1:16 |
| K. Bellows | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:53 | 0:54 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:26 | 3:00 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:47 | 2:38 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:38 | 3:20 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:07 | 3:08 |
| C. Sissons | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 12:56 | 0:00 |
| Z. L'Heureux | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Skjei | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 26:16 | 1:18 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 2 | 23:40 | 3:24 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:55 | 0:01 |
| M. Del Gaizo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:38 | 0:13 |
| S. Stastney | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:50 | 0:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 58:33 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.1, NSH 2.9 | STL 3, NSH 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | STL 26.5, NSH 28.8 | STL 21, NSH 18 |
| Win chance | STL 52% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.2 | 4 | 0.90 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.4 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.4 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.2 | 4 | 0.78 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.2 | 3 | 0.70 | 2 | 23% | 2 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 2.0 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.9 | 0 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 1.9 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.8 | 1 | 0.91 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.62 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.6 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.6 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH M. Gaizo | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH K. Bellows | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH Z. L'Heureux | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH C. Sissons | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 3 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.8 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.7 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stastney | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.6 | 0 | 0.11 | 1 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.