Game Recap: STL 2, NSH 7, December 11, 2025

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Game Recap

STL2

FinalThu, Dec 11, 2025Every game that night

NSH7

NSH beat STL 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.72 expected goals to 1.99. S. Stamkos scored 4 for NSH. S. Stamkos had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Saros stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	0	2	0	2
NSH	2	4	1	7

1st 8:22NSHS. Stamkos0.38 xG
1st 11:19NSHS. Stamkos0.12 xG
2nd 4:17STLH. McGing0.13 xG
2nd 8:38NSHR. O'Reilly0.08 xG
2nd 11:43NSHF. Forsberg0.23 xG
2nd 12:06NSHS. Stamkos0.13 xG
2nd 13:56STLR. Thomas0.06 xG
2nd 15:33NSHS. Stamkos0.05 xG
3rd 7:36NSHM. BuntingPP0.14 xG

Team Stats

STLNSH

26Shots on goal32

1.99Expected goals3.72

47Shot attempts56

185v5 shots on goal24

0/3Power play1/4

27Hits14

10Blocked shots15

13Penalty minutes11

14Giveaways10

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 1.99 xGNSH 3.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL25 on goal, 2 scored

NSH32 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	0	19:02	2:07
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	15:25	2:37
R. Fabbri	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	4	14:28	1:21
H. McGing	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	0	9:48	1:18
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	18:38	2:05
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	0	16:58	1:42
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:28	2:57
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-3	2	15:26	1:40
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	14:37	1:40
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:44	1:08
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	11:30	0:49
A. Kaskimaki	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	9:31	1:06
P. Broberg	D	0	2	2	3	1	0	0	0	25:26	2:34
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	22:00	0:50
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-3	2	20:57	1:26
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:26	2:05
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	5	16:06	1:26
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	15:07	1:09

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	25	19	6	.760	40:00	Loss
J. Hofer	7	6	1	.857	20:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	4	0	4	9	0	0	+4	0	16:42	4:31
L. Evangelista	RW	0	3	3	3	0	0	+2	0	18:32	2:48
F. Svechkov	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+4	0	16:46	1:28
M. Wood	RW	0	2	2	0	1	0	+4	0	15:49	3:47
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+2	2	18:25	3:35
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+2	0	16:52	3:05
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	14:27	2:19
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:08	2:50
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	15:03	3:08
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	-1	5	14:41	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	1	5	3	-1	2	13:28	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	2	2	4	0	0	+3	0	20:54	4:50
N. Blankenburg	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	18:05	3:28
B. Skjei	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	+2	0	20:14	0:34
N. Perbix	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	16:18	0:32
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:49	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:08	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	26	24	2	.923	58:46	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1P. Buchnevich13:50R. Thomas14:02J. Neighbours12:48

Line 2B. Schenn12:34D. Holloway12:55M. Joseph10:39

Line 3R. Fabbri12:57D. Dvorsky11:41P. Suter11:01

Line 4O. Sundqvist6:56A. Kaskimaki8:25H. McGing7:50

Pair 1C. Fowler18:40C. Parayko16:27

Pair 2J. Faulk13:04P. Broberg17:18

Pair 3L. Mailloux13:58T. Tucker11:50

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly11:39L. Evangelista15:08F. Forsberg14:40

Line 2M. McCarron11:15R. Schaefer11:21J. Marchessault11:55

Line 3F. Svechkov13:38M. Wood11:51S. Stamkos12:01

Line 4E. Haula11:20M. Bunting11:04

Pair 1R. Josi15:28N. Hague12:46

Pair 2S. Stastney11:02N. Blankenburg11:05

Pair 3N. Perbix12:36B. Skjei16:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 2.9, NSH 2.8	STL 2, NSH 7
Total goals	5.7	9
Shots on goal	STL 24.9, NSH 28.2	STL 26, NSH 32
Win chance	STL 51%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	5	0.86	1	34%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.6	4	0.79	2	18%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.4	3	0.63	3	19%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.3	3	0.71	0	24%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.2	0	0.62	0	28%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.1	9	0.72	4	32%	4
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	1	0.74	1	26%	1
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	2	0.79	0	25%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.8	1	0.42	1	11%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.8	1	0.49	0	20%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.8	2	0.56	1	21%	1
STL R. Thomas	1.7	4	0.99	1	23%	1
STL P. Suter	1.7	2	0.51	0	21%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	0	0.43	2	19%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.6	1	0.46	0	10%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	0	0.60	0	20%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	2	0.60	1	24%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.5	1	0.41	0	11%	0
STL R. Fabbri	1.4	0	0.40	1	19%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.4	3	0.39	2	10%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	1	0.27	0	14%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.3	0	0.53	0	9%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.3	1	0.28	2	12%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.3	1	0.35	2	9%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.3	0	0.35	0	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	2	0.24	0	11%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	0	0.25	0	6%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	0	0.22	0	4%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.1	0	0.30	1	7%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	1.0	1	0.26	0	12%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.0	1	0.21	0	6%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	2	0.37	0	11%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.8	1	0.17	0	6%	0
STL H. McGing	0.8	1	0.15	1	9%	1
NSH S. Stastney	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.