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Game Recap
STL5
NSH6
NSH beat STL 6-5, with the chances close: 3.51 expected goals to 3.71. R. Josi led the way with 4 points (0 G, 4 A). P. Buchnevich had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Annunen stopped 13 of 13.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| NSH | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
- 1st 4:53STLJ. Neighbours0.09 xG
- 1st 9:16NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.07 xG
- 1st 14:24STLP. BuchnevichPP0.16 xG
- 2nd 0:45STLP. Buchnevich0.19 xG
- 2nd 3:23STLP. Broberg0.03 xG
- 2nd 3:55STLC. Parayko0.14 xG
- 2nd 11:35NSHM. McCarron0.06 xG
- 2nd 13:49NSHF. Forsberg0.03 xG
- 3rd 2:02NSHR. O'Reilly0.18 xG
- 3rd 7:14NSHS. Stamkos0.04 xG
- 3rd 10:23NSHS. Stamkos0.34 xG
Team Stats
STLNSH
34Shots on goal28
3.71Expected goals3.51
58Shot attempts57
315v5 shots on goal26
1/2Power play1/2
16Hits15
10Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways13
8Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
STL 3.71 xGNSH 3.51 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:28 | 1:17 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 1:16 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:15 | 1:12 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:54 | 1:08 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:28 | 1:01 |
| P. Suter | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 1:04 |
| D. Dvorsky | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:59 | 1:14 |
| N. Bjugstad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 1:03 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:20 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 1:03 |
| C. Parayko | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:14 | 0:03 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 1:14 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 18:21 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:48 | 0:05 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 28 | 22 | 6 | .786 | 58:59 | Loss |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 0:03 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:13 | 1:12 |
| R. O'Reilly | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:52 | 1:12 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:06 | 1:12 |
| M. McCarron | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:03 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Marchessault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:02 | 1:12 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:29 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:24 | 0:03 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:35 | 1:15 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:33 | 0:03 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:08 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| A. Englund | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 6:13 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 21 | 16 | 5 | .762 | 23:55 | |
| J. Annunen | 13 | 13 | 0 | 1.000 | 36:05 | Win |
Lines at 5-on-5
STL
Line 1J. Snuggerud17:11D. Dvorsky15:19B. Schenn16:56
Line 2P. Buchnevich15:25J. Neighbours16:10J. Kyrou13:33
Line 3N. Bjugstad14:20J. Berggren13:00P. Suter15:32
Line 4O. Sundqvist8:09A. Toropchenko11:06M. Joseph9:17
Pair 1C. Parayko20:59P. Broberg19:33
Pair 3C. Fowler17:42L. Mailloux15:39
NSH
Line 1S. Stamkos16:53R. O'Reilly17:35L. Evangelista17:55
Line 2M. McCarron15:10C. Smith15:03M. Bunting16:10
Line 3F. Forsberg20:06J. Marchessault14:50E. Haula14:22
Pair 3J. Barron15:08N. Blankenburg14:48
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL 3.1, NSH 3.2 | STL 5, NSH 6 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | STL 25.7, NSH 28.7 | STL 34, NSH 28 |
| Win chance | NSH 51% | NSH won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH R. Josi | 3.2 | 1 | 1.00 | 4 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.1 | 2 | 1.00 | 2 | 37% | 1 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 3 | 0.76 | 3 | 30% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.3 | 2 | 0.84 | 2 | 35% | 2 |
| STL J. Snuggerud | 2.2 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.2 | 3 | 0.67 | 3 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH J. Marchessault | 2.0 | 3 | 0.59 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 6 | 0.78 | 3 | 25% | 2 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.0 | 2 | 0.92 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 1.8 | 0 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.6 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| STL P. Suter | 1.6 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| STL N. Bjugstad | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL D. Dvorsky | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.4 | 4 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.4 | 4 | 0.57 | 3 | 24% | 1 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| STL J. Berggren | 1.3 | 2 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 9% | 1 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.9 | 3 | 0.20 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL L. Mailloux | 0.9 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NSH J. Barron | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH A. Englund | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.