Game Recap: STL 2, NSH 5, October 17, 2026

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Game Recap

STL2

FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night

NSH5

NSH beat STL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.23 expected goals to 2.25. F. Forsberg led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Broberg had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Saros stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	1	0	2
NSH	2	1	2	5

1st 6:21STLP. Broberg0.21 xG
1st 8:40NSHJ. Marchessault0.34 xG
1st 12:22NSHF. Forsberg0.06 xG
2nd 7:05NSHA. EdstromSH0.09 xG
2nd 7:36STLJ. SnuggerudPP0.37 xG
3rd 2:50NSHR. O'Reilly0.64 xG
3rd 8:14NSHJ. Drury0.38 xG

Team Stats

STLNSH

26Shots on goal24

2.25Expected goals3.23

56Shot attempts42

235v5 shots on goal13

1/5Power play1/1

18Hits26

4Blocked shots20

2Penalty minutes10

14Giveaways16

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.25 xGNSH 3.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL25 on goal, 2 scored

NSH22 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	19:41	5:06
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	0	19:33	4:15
M. McTavish	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	-2	0	18:36	4:52
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	0	6	0	-2	0	16:48	4:36
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	22:32	5:07
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:32	3:54
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:31	4:35
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:10	4:19
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:21	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:34	1:15
D. Peterson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:52	0:00
P. Broberg	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	-1	0	25:10	4:34
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:52	5:14
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	17:22	0:10
T. Lindstein	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:42	0:09
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	12:29	0:00
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	12:19	0:00
A. Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	10:17	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	24	19	5	.792	59:39	Loss
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Forsberg	LW	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	2	19:14	1:49
S. Stamkos	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	2	17:38	1:51
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	+3	0	20:34	1:52
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	18:32	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	1	0	1	3	8	1	+1	0	17:25	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	15:37	1:50
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	18:24	0:10
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:28	0:08
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:44	0:00
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:42	0:09
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:21	0:00
V. Pinchuk	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	4:01	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	2	2	1	0	2	+4	0	24:36	1:50
A. Wilsby	D	0	2	2	0	0	1	+4	0	22:06	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	8	3	0	0	19:36	0:00
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	18:14	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	17:43	0:11
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	16:27	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas15:58J. Snuggerud14:14P. Buchnevich13:32

Line 2M. McTavish13:09C. McMichael13:16J. Berggren13:37

Line 3P. Suter13:41J. Neighbours12:12D. Holloway14:57

Line 4D. Peterson9:52D. Dvorsky9:19

Pair 1C. Parayko15:49T. Lindstein13:12

Pair 2P. Broberg19:13A. Jiricek10:13

Pair 3C. Fowler13:40B. Carlo11:52

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos15:43F. Forsberg17:25R. O'Reilly13:50

Line 2A. Edstrom13:29J. Drury13:30R. Schaefer8:37

Line 3A. Kerfoot13:49J. Marchessault13:47R. Colton11:20

Line 4M. Wood9:09N. Hoglander9:00

Pair 1R. Josi18:45A. Wilsby18:14

Pair 2J. Struble18:48N. Hague16:41

Pair 3B. Skjei12:15N. Perbix11:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

4 of 17 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
STL D. Holloway	2.5	+106	-135	2	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-160	+125	2	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	+160	-190	4	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	-104	-115	3	Over
STL M. McTavish	2.5	+106	-135	2	Under
NSH R. Josi	2.5	+125	-155	1	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+110	-140	1	Under
STL A. Jiricek	1.5	-130	+100	1	Under
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	-105	-125	1	Under
STL C. Fowler	1.5	+120	–	2	Over
STL C. McMichael	1.5	-140	+125	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	+110	-135	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	1.5	+105	-125	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	-125	-105	1	Under
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-120	-110	1	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-135	+115	4	Over
STL R. Thomas	1.5	-120	+100	0	Under

7 of 33 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+650	-1000	1	Over
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+850	-1400	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+2200	-3500	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+2000	-4000	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1000	-1400	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+950	-2800	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+300	-390	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+390	-550	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+230	-285	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+195	-240	1	Over
NSH J. Barron	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+550	-750	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+850	-1400	1	Over
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+280	-400	1	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+220	-285	1	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+310	-400	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+400	-600	0	Under
NSH N. Hague	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+525	-750	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+2000	-3500	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+1300	-3500	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+380	-450	0	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+460	-700	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+450	-800	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+240	-370	1	Over
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+900	-1400	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+310	-370	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+185	-230	0	Under
STL T. Lindstein	0.5	+1400	-5000	0	Under

6 of 21 overs hit (29%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+205	-285	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+270	-275	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+230	-400	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+235	-275	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+300	-550	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+124	-155	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+135	-165	1	Over
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+225	-375	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+210	-225	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+290	-400	1	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+160	-190	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+190	-210	1	Over
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+280	-295	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+225	-375	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+350	-700	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+102	-120	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+126	-140	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+100	-115	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+150	-165	2	Over

10 of 21 overs hit (48%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+155	-190	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+160	-160	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+170	-230	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+185	-200	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+125	-145	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	-135	+120	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-160	+155	2	Over
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+110	-105	1	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+145	-175	1	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	-130	+115	1	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+105	-120	1	Over
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+142	-150	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+225	-320	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+115	-145	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+190	-260	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-132	+120	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-158	+140	1	Over
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-162	+135	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-170	+135	2	Over

3 of 18 overs hit (17%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+320	-700	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+310	-500	1	Over
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+185	-235	0	Under
STL J. Berggren	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH J. Marchessault	0.5	+350	-500	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+450	-1200	1	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+380	-650	1	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+340	-625	0	Under
NSH M. Wood	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+195	-275	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+260	-275	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+300	-500	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+220	-235	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
STL J. Binnington	23.5	-120	-105	19	Under
NSH J. Saros	23.5	-112	-118	24	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.1, NSH 3.0	STL 2, NSH 5
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	STL 26.7, NSH 27.1	STL 26, NSH 24
Win chance	STL 52%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	2	1.11	2	40%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.8	1	0.87	2	18%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.6	3	0.76	1	25%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	1	0.91	2	38%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.4	2	0.75	1	24%	0
STL M. McTavish	2.4	2	0.58	1	21%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	4	0.93	1	30%	1
NSH R. Colton	2.0	1	0.43	0	19%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.8	1	0.70	0	25%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.8	0	1.02	0	27%	0
STL C. McMichael	1.8	0	0.59	0	21%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	1.8	4	0.59	1	24%	1
NSH M. Wood	1.6	0	0.47	0	21%	0
STL A. Jiricek	1.5	1	0.25	0	7%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.5	0	0.37	2	5%	0
STL P. Suter	1.4	1	0.42	0	17%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	1	0.32	0	9%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	2	0.32	0	15%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.3	1	0.38	0	9%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.3	0	0.51	1	20%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.3	3	0.37	1	15%	1
NSH A. Kerfoot	1.3	2	0.57	0	20%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.3	2	0.42	0	17%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.2	3	0.26	1	15%	1
STL P. Broberg	1.1	4	0.37	1	8%	1
STL C. Fowler	1.1	2	0.46	0	8%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.0	0	0.29	0	14%	0
STL T. Lindstein	1.0	1	0.21	0	5%	0
STL B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.14	0	4%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
STL J. Barron	0.9	3	0.22	0	7%	0
NSH N. Hague	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	0.8	0	0.16	0	10%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.6	0	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.