Game Recap: STL 1, NSH 3, November 7, 2026

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Game Recap

STL1

FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night

NSH3

NSH beat STL 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.07 expected goals to 2.01. S. Stamkos led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Stamkos had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. J. Saros stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
STL	1	0	0	1
NSH	1	1	1	3

1st 13:07STLJ. SnuggerudPP0.12 xG
1st 16:07NSHS. StamkosPP0.31 xG
2nd 9:02NSHR. Colton0.13 xG
3rd 18:31NSHN. PerbixEN0.75 xG

Team Stats

STLNSH

26Shots on goal29

2.01Expected goals4.07

60Shot attempts65

225v5 shots on goal20

1/2Power play1/3

28Hits16

12Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways18

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

STL 2.01 xGNSH 4.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

STL25 on goal, 1 scored

NSH29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	21:54	1:41
J. Snuggerud	RW	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	18:09	1:39
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	2	6	2	-1	0	18:54	1:00
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:58	1:00
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	15:39	0:02
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	15:36	1:39
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	13:38	0:02
C. McMichael	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	12:48	0:48
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:29	1:47
A. Kaskimaki	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	11:43	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:31	0:02
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:14	0:47
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	28:21	1:55
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	20:30	0:02
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	2	19:51	0:49
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	19:08	0:12
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	16:20	0:00
A. Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	13:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	28	26	2	.929	58:36	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	1	2	5	0	1	+1	0	19:23	3:32
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	3	1	2	+1	0	20:48	3:31
M. Bourque	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	18:35	3:34
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	14:55	0:00
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	11:22	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:48	3:33
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:01	1:34
A. Kerfoot	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	14:03	1:36
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	+1	0	14:03	0:00
N. Hoglander	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:29	1:35
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
V. Pinchuk	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	9:49	1:35
R. Josi	D	0	2	2	2	1	2	0	0	25:38	3:33
N. Perbix	D	1	0	1	3	0	2	+1	0	19:02	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	20:25	1:37
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	19:23	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:03	0:00
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	14:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	26	25	1	.962	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

STL

Line 1R. Thomas16:36D. Holloway16:30J. Snuggerud15:02

Line 2P. Suter13:38A. Toropchenko11:54R. Johnston11:29

Line 3P. Buchnevich11:46C. McMichael11:13D. Dvorsky9:27

Line 4J. Neighbours12:50M. McTavish10:42A. Kaskimaki10:43

Pair 1B. Carlo14:39P. Broberg22:02

Pair 2C. Parayko18:05J. Barron16:39

Pair 3C. Fowler17:35A. Jiricek12:25

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos15:03R. O'Reilly14:50M. Bourque15:01

Line 2F. Forsberg16:42S. Wright13:16N. Hoglander11:54

Line 3J. Drury12:21A. Edstrom12:25R. Colton10:56

Line 4A. Kerfoot11:12R. Schaefer9:20V. Pinchuk8:14

Pair 1R. Josi20:41A. Wilsby18:53

Pair 2B. Skjei15:54N. Perbix16:13

Pair 3J. Struble16:14D. Hunt14:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

11 of 24 overs hit (46%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
STL D. Holloway	2.5	+136	-155	2	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	2.5	-140	+120	3	Over
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	+120	-144	5	Over
STL M. McTavish	2.5	+120	-145	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	2.5	-105	-110	2	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	+110	-135	5	Over
STL A. Kaskimaki	1.5	+130	–	1	Under
STL A. Toropchenko	1.5	+115	–	2	Over
NSH A. Wilsby	1.5	+100	–	1	Under
NSH B. Skjei	1.5	-145	–	2	Over
STL C. McMichael	1.5	-102	-110	3	Over
STL C. Parayko	1.5	+105	–	1	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	1.5	+120	–	1	Under
NSH J. Drury	1.5	+125	–	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	+105	-115	1	Under
NSH M. Bourque	1.5	-156	+125	2	Over
STL P. Broberg	1.5	-122	-105	1	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	-111	+100	3	Over
STL P. Suter	1.5	+130	–	2	Over
NSH R. Colton	1.5	-130	+120	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.5	-140	+112	1	Under
STL R. Thomas	1.5	-128	+105	0	Under
NSH S. Wright	1.5	+125	-145	0	Under
NSH V. Pinchuk	1.5	+115	–	3	Over

4 of 36 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NSH A. Edstrom	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
STL A. Jiricek	0.5	+1100	-2800	0	Under
STL A. Kaskimaki	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.5	+500	-1000	0	Under
STL A. Toropchenko	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
NSH A. Wilsby	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
STL B. Carlo	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
NSH B. Skjei	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+1100	-2500	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+420	-550	0	Under
STL C. Parayko	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
STL D. Dvorsky	0.5	+575	–	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+275	-390	0	Under
NSH D. Hunt	0.5	+1800	-3500	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+195	-225	0	Under
STL J. Barron	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
NSH J. Drury	0.5	+650	-900	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+340	-475	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+220	-285	1	Over
NSH J. Struble	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+350	-450	0	Under
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+230	-350	0	Under
NSH N. Hoglander	0.5	+575	-800	0	Under
NSH N. Perbix	0.5	+1600	-3500	1	Over
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+370	-475	0	Under
STL P. Suter	0.5	+650	-1000	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+500	-650	1	Over
STL R. Johnston	0.5	+1200	-2500	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+450	-700	0	Under
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
NSH R. Schaefer	0.5	+750	-1400	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+180	-250	1	Over
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+430	-600	0	Under
NSH V. Pinchuk	0.5	+600	-1000	0	Under

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+280	-375	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+240	-295	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+195	-230	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+115	-127	1	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+190	-235	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+165	-210	0	Under
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+200	-250	1	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+175	-220	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+132	-165	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+255	-275	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-108	+105	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+115	-145	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+105	-120	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+162	-190	1	Over
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+330	-400	0	Under

8 of 16 overs hit (50%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+215	-260	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+135	-155	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	-200	+165	1	Over
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+105	-120	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	-125	+110	1	Over
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+115	-140	1	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	-120	+100	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	-102	-115	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+130	-135	0	Under
NSH R. Colton	0.5	+235	-275	1	Over
NSH R. Josi	0.5	-154	+145	2	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	-155	+131	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	-166	+141	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	-150	+140	2	Over
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+165	-190	0	Under

6 of 15 overs hit (40%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
STL C. Fowler	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
STL C. McMichael	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
STL D. Holloway	0.5	+380	-900	0	Under
NSH F. Forsberg	0.5	+180	-250	0	Under
STL J. Neighbours	0.5	+390	-625	0	Under
STL J. Snuggerud	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
NSH M. Bourque	0.5	+340	-750	1	Over
STL M. McTavish	0.5	+280	-350	0	Under
STL P. Broberg	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
STL P. Buchnevich	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NSH R. Josi	0.5	+180	-220	1	Over
NSH R. O'Reilly	0.5	+250	-295	0	Under
STL R. Thomas	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
NSH S. Stamkos	0.5	+210	-250	1	Over
NSH S. Wright	0.5	+360	-550	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
STL J. Hofer	24.5	-105	-114	26	Over
NSH J. Saros	23.5	-110	-115	25	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	STL 3.2, NSH 3.0	STL 1, NSH 3
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	STL 27.2, NSH 27.8	STL 26, NSH 29
Win chance	STL 53%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	2.9	3	0.97	1	35%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.8	2	0.84	2	17%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.6	2	0.78	0	26%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	5	0.80	1	29%	1
STL M. McTavish	2.5	0	0.67	0	25%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	5	0.83	2	35%	1
NSH R. Colton	2.1	2	0.48	1	22%	1
NSH M. Bourque	2.0	2	0.53	1	22%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	1	0.85	0	27%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.8	0	1.02	1	27%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.6	1	0.55	1	12%	0
STL C. McMichael	1.5	3	0.51	0	18%	0
NSH A. Edstrom	1.5	0	0.37	0	21%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.5	3	0.55	0	20%	0
STL A. Kaskimaki	1.5	1	0.29	0	14%	0
NSH J. Drury	1.5	0	0.40	1	16%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.4	1	0.53	0	20%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.4	1	0.35	0	7%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	1	0.30	0	9%	0
STL A. Jiricek	1.3	0	0.26	0	9%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.3	2	0.35	0	8%	0
NSH S. Wright	1.3	0	0.43	0	19%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	1	0.24	0	12%	0
STL P. Suter	1.2	2	0.35	0	15%	0
STL J. Barron	1.1	1	0.30	0	8%	0
NSH N. Hoglander	1.1	3	0.29	0	14%	0
STL B. Carlo	1.1	0	0.16	0	4%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	2	0.22	0	9%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	3	0.24	1	5%	1
NSH R. Schaefer	0.9	0	0.18	0	10%	0
NSH V. Pinchuk	0.9	3	0.22	0	10%	0
STL C. Fowler	0.9	3	0.38	0	6%	0
NSH A. Kerfoot	0.9	0	0.35	0	12%	0
NSH D. Hunt	0.8	2	0.17	0	4%	0
STL R. Johnston	0.6	0	0.14	0	5%	0
NSH J. Struble	0.6	0	0.16	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.